Stablecoins' "ChatGPT Moment" Could Push Market to $4 Trillion: Citi

Citi has revised its forecast for the stablecoin market, projecting it could reach $4 trillion by 2030, up from a prior bull-case estimate of $3.7 trillion. The bank attributes this acceleration to what it terms blockchain’s “ChatGPT moment,” where stablecoins are rapidly driving mainstream adoption. Citi analysts Ronit Ghose and Ryan Rugg highlighted that stablecoins are becoming a critical financial tool for digitally native businesses and households in frontier markets, with the potential to support up to $200 trillion in annual transactions. The report underscores regulatory clarity, such as the U.S. Genius Act signed by President Trump, as a catalyst for corporate adoption and infrastructure development.

The stablecoin market currently stands at $280 billion, according to Citi, with 88% of demand stemming from crypto-native activities like trading, DeFi collateral, and treasury management. While payments account for just 6% of usage, industry leaders like Confirmo CEO Anna Strebl note exponential growth in real-world applications. Monthly business-to-business stablecoin payments surged from under $100 million in 2022 to over $3 billion in 2025, signaling a shift from niche to mainstream utility. The Genius Act, the first federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, has further legitimized the sector, prompting major corporations to prioritize onchain solutions.

Citi’s forecast contrasts with JPMorgan’s more conservative $500 billion projection by 2028, which emphasizes limited mainstream adoption and reliance on crypto-native demand. JPMorgan argues that stablecoins face barriers such as low yields and friction in fiat conversions, hindering their ability to replace traditional banking tools like money market funds or digital wallets. However, Citi and Standard Chartered, which projects a $2 trillion market by 2028 under favorable regulatory scenarios, argue that institutional backing and infrastructure advancements will drive mass adoption.

The report highlights a surge in stablecoin startups, with fundraising reaching $537 million in 2025—five times 2024 levels. Major players like Circle and Tether are expanding aggressively, with Tether rumored to raise $20 billion at a $500 billion valuation. Citi notes that the future will see a diverse ecosystem of stablecoin issuers coexisting with traditional financial systems, driven by incremental demand for U.S. Treasuries and cross-border settlement efficiency.

Despite differing projections, analysts agree that stablecoins are reshaping global finance. Edward Carroll of MHC Digital Group emphasized the GENIUS Act’s role in enabling real-time settlements and compliance, benefiting blockchains like Ethereum, Solana, and Tron. Meanwhile, Citi’s base-case $1.9 trillion and bull-case $4 trillion forecasts hinge on regulatory progress and technological innovation, positioning stablecoins as a cornerstone of the digital economy by the end of the decade.