El dilema de las recompensas relacionadas con los stablecoins: La postura de Coinbase en relación con la ley CLARITY indica riesgos y oportunidades regulatorias en los activos criptográficos.

The U.S. crypto market stands at a pivotal crossroads as the CLARITY Act, a proposed federal regulatory framework for digital assets, navigates political and industry debates. At the center of this debate is Coinbase, whose evolving stance on the bill-particularly its potential withdrawal of support-has become a bellwether for the broader tension between regulatory clarity and innovation. For investors, the implications of stablecoin regulation under the CLARITY Act extend far beyond compliance; they directly shape the financial models of crypto platforms, investor returns, and the competitive landscape of the industry.

The CLARITY Act: A Double-Edged Sword for Stablecoin Innovation

The CLARITY Act aims to define digital-asset classifications and establish jurisdictional boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, with the goal of reducing regulatory ambiguity. For stablecoins, the bill's treatment of yield-bearing mechanisms has emerged as a flashpoint. While the GENIUS Act of 2025 standardized U.S. stablecoin issuance, it left a regulatory loophole: intermediaries like exchanges could offer rewards on stablecoins they custody. This has enabled platforms such as Coinbase to generate significant revenue- projected to reach $1.3 billion in 2025-through incentives like 3.5% annualized returns on stablecoin holdings.

However, the CLARITY Act's proposed restrictions on stablecoin yield, particularly if passive earnings are prohibited, could disrupt this model. Traditional banks argue such rewards siphon deposits from community institutions, undermining lending capabilities. Conversely, Coinbase and other crypto firms counter that these incentives are critical for fostering U.S. global competitiveness, especially as China moves to make its digital yuan interest-bearing in 2026. The tension here is not merely regulatory but existential: stablecoin rewards have become a cornerstone of user growth and liquidity in the crypto ecosystem.

Coinbase's Leverage and the Risk of Regulatory Arbitrage

Coinbase's potential withdrawal of support for the CLARITY Act underscores its strategic leverage in shaping the bill's final form. The company has signaled it may abandon the bill if provisions restricting DeFi and stablecoin rewards remain unchanged. This stance reflects a broader industry concern: overly restrictive regulations could drive innovation offshore, where jurisdictions like the UAE or Singapore offer more permissive frameworks.

For investors, this creates a dual risk. First, if the CLARITY Act passes in a restrictive form, Coinbase's stablecoin revenue could decline sharply, forcing the platform to pivot to alternative monetization strategies- such as fee-based services or institutional-grade products. Second, regulatory arbitrage could fragment the market, with platforms in less regulated jurisdictions gaining an edge in yield-bearing stablecoin offerings. This scenario risks eroding U.S.-based exchanges' market share and investor confidence.

Investor Behavior and the Long-Term Outlook

The CLARITY Act's impact on investor behavior hinges on its treatment of stablecoin yields. If passive earnings are curtailed, retail and institutional investors may seek alternative avenues for yield generation, such as tokenized money markets or cross-border stablecoin solutions. This could accelerate the adoption of decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, provided they remain operational under the bill's DeFi oversight provisions.

From a competitive standpoint, the Act's passage could redefine the crypto exchange landscape. Platforms that adapt quickly- such as those integrating AI-driven compliance tools or zero-knowledge privacy features-may outperform peers in a post-CLARITY environment. Conversely, exchanges unable to navigate regulatory shifts risk obsolescence, particularly if the bill's DeFi restrictions stifle innovation.

Regulatory Scenarios: Restrictive vs. Permissive Outcomes

The financial projections for crypto platforms under different CLARITY Act scenarios reveal stark contrasts. A restrictive framework, characterized by yield limitations and stringent DeFi oversight, could slow institutional adoption and reduce market liquidity. In this case, Coinbase's stablecoin revenue might contract, while decentralized exchanges (DEXs) could gain traction by offering no-KYC access and lower fees. According to research, a permissive CLARITY Act-aligning with the GENIUS Act's approach-would likely boost stablecoin AUM to $500 billion by 2026, enabling deeper integration with traditional finance. Here, Coinbase's current business model would remain viable, and institutional participation in crypto markets could surge, driven by stablecoins' role as efficient wrappers for Treasury bills and other assets.

Conclusion: Navigating the Dilemma

The CLARITY Act represents both a risk and an opportunity for crypto investors. For platforms like Coinbase, the bill's outcome will determine the sustainability of their revenue streams and their ability to compete globally. For investors, the key lies in assessing how regulatory clarity-whether restrictive or permissive-shapes market structure, liquidity, and innovation. As the Senate Banking Committee finalizes negotiations, the industry's next moves will be critical: will the U.S. prioritize regulatory control at the expense of innovation, or will it embrace a framework that balances investor protection with growth? The answer will define the trajectory of crypto assets for years to come.