Spring Equinox: Reflecting on a Nearly Full Q1

Friday, March 20th, 2026

We take a breather from major earnings reports and economic prints coming down the pike this Friday. Month-to-date, we’ve gotten plenty of information with which to guide market direction — not all of it good. Thus, we welcome this time to sit back and assess where we are as of the 2026 Spring Equinox.

Pre-market futures are again fighting off early morning lows at this hour, but still trading in the red. The Dow is -110 points currently, -0.24%, while the S&P 500 is -18 points, -0.27%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq is -95 points, -0.39%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 -7 points, -0.30%. These indexes are down both in the past week and the past month of trading. Only the Russell 2000 is still in the green year to date.

Fed Governor Waller Sees the Conundrum

On this morning’s “Squawk Box” program from CNBC, Fed Governor Christopher Waller was interviewed extensively. Following this week’s latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which resulted in another non-move from the 3.50-3.75% interest rate level last changed in December, Waller spelled out where his thinking on future rates is.

As of the most recent monthly non-farm jobs report, which saw a loss of -92K jobs in February, Waller was supportive of a 25 basis-point (bps) rate cut at this March FOMC meeting. But once the U.S. and Israel attacks on Iran caused the Strait of Hormuz to close down, cutting off supply of 20 million barrels (/bbl) of oil per day and causing oil prices to rise, inflation now becomes a concern. “My brain understands the math, but I can’t get it through my gut that this is OK,” Waller said.

Due to a +2.8% Inflation Rate most recently comparing to +2.8% back in December of 2024, Waller concludes that inflation rates are not structural. Therefore, he expects that if this Middle East turmoil is rectified in the short term, then the pass-through on inflation will begin to take us down closer to +2%. And because the labor market remains a concern, he feels this would lead to a rate cut.

Not discussed by Waller were the above-3% inflation metrics we’ve seen as recently as this week in Producer Price Index (PPI) year over year: +3.4%. Elements within the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the previous week came in as high as +3.9%. These figures do not include the closing off of the Strait of Hormuz, however, so it’s possible the inflation pain we can expect to experience may be worse than Waller currently identifies.

FedEx Share Up on Big Q3 Beat

FedEx FDX shares are higher in today’s pre-market after better-than-expected results from its fiscal Q3 numbers. Earnings of $5.25 per share beat the Zacks consensus of $4.14 per share by +26.8% (and nicely above the $4.54 per share reported in the year-ago quarter). Revenues of $24 billion in the quarter outpaced estimates by +1.75% (and up from $22.2 billion in the year-ago quarter). With increased demand in its forecast, shares are up +7.5% in early trading. For more on FDX’s earnings, click here.

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