¿Spotify (SPOT) está sobrevalorado a pesar del potencial de flujo de efectivo fuerte?

The question of whether Spotify Technology (SPOT) is overvalued has become a focal point for investors weighing the company's lofty multiples against its long-term growth prospects. With a trailing P/E ratio of 72.1x and a forward P/E of 42.55 as of December 2025 according to Yahoo Finance, Spotify trades at a premium to the broader technology sector's average forward P/E of 29.87 per WorldPeratio. Meanwhile, its enterprise value-to-free cash flow (EV/FCF) ratio of 39.56 dwarfs that of peers like Gartner (15.69) and Innovation (14.58) as reported by FinBox. These metrics suggest a stock priced for perfection, yet analysts remain bullish on its long-term potential. The challenge lies in reconciling Spotify's current valuation with its projected cash flow growth and market expansion.

Short-Term Volatility and Mixed Guidance

Spotify's recent stock performance has been a study in contrasts. In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of €4.27 billion and adjusted earnings per share of €3.28, both exceeding expectations. However, shares fell 2.25% following the earnings report, as management provided mixed guidance. Fourth-quarter revenue was forecast at €4.5 billion, below the €4.56 billion Wall Street anticipated. Additionally, premium subscriber growth slowed, with only 8 million new additions expected in Q4, far below the 291.1 million mark implied by analysts. This disconnect between financial results and market expectations highlights the risks of relying on near-term metrics in a high-growth story.

Analysts have not been deterred. As of late 2025, 34 Wall Street analysts rate Spotify as a "Moderate Buy", with an average 12-month price target of $769.33-implying a 32.78% upside from its November 26 closing price of $579.39. Notable upgrades include Morgan Stanley raising its target to $775 and Bank of America setting a $900 benchmark as per Tipranks. These optimistic forecasts hinge on the belief that Spotify's long-term fundamentals will outpace short-term volatility.

Long-Term Cash Flow and Market Expansion

The case for Spotify rests on its ability to scale free cash flow (FCF) and capitalize on structural trends in digital content consumption. Analysts project FCF to surge from €2.9 billion in the trailing twelve months to €6.4 billion by 2029, driven by a multi-platform strategy that includes podcasts, audiobooks, and video content. Revenue is expected to nearly double from $16.3 billion in 2024 to $33 billion in 2029, with adjusted earnings per share rising from $5.71 to $21.23 over the same period. Such growth would justify a premium valuation if realized, particularly as Spotify aims to reach 1 billion monthly active users by 2030 from 713 million in Q3 2025.

A discounted cash flow model further supports this optimism. Simply Wall St estimates Spotify could reach a $175 billion valuation by 2030 using a 16x terminal EBITDA multiple. This assumes continued dominance in music streaming, successful monetization of ad-supported tiers, and expansion into adjacent content formats. However, risks remain. Ad monetization has lagged expectations, and competition in emerging markets could pressure margins.

Reconciling the Valuation
The key to Spotify's valuation lies in the interplay between its current multiples and future cash flow potential. While a P/E of 72.1x appears excessive against historical averages, it reflects investor confidence in a company that has consistently outperformed in user growth and content innovation. The EV/FCF ratio of 39.56, though high, is less anomalous when compared to the broader tech sector's average forward P/E of 38.26 per WorldPeratio. This suggests Spotify is not an outlier but part of a broader trend of elevated valuations in growth stocks.

Critics argue that Spotify's multiples are unsustainable unless it delivers on ambitious targets. For instance, achieving $7.34 billion in FCF by 2029 would require a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25%, a steep bar in a maturing market. Yet, Spotify's first-mover advantage in music streaming and its pivot into podcasts and audiobooks provide a runway for differentiation. As one analyst noted, "The company is not just a music platform anymore".

Conclusion

Spotify's valuation is a classic case of paying for the future. While its current multiples appear stretched relative to earnings and cash flow, they are justified by a compelling long-term narrative: a dominant position in a $100 billion music industry, a scalable ad-supported model, and a content strategy that extends beyond music. The risks-ad monetization, competition, and macroeconomic headwinds-are real, but so is the potential for outsized returns. For investors with a multi-year horizon, Spotify's premium valuation may be a feature, not a bug.