Spell Token/Tether Market Overview: Volatile 24-Hour Move with Mixed Momentum

• Price declined from 0.0004476 to 0.000428 with 280-point intraday range.
• RSI oversold levels observed late into the session.
• Volume surged during pullback, but price failed to recover.
• Bollinger Bands show moderate expansion, with price near the lower band.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed in early morning ET.

Spell Token/Tether (SPELLUSDT) opened at 0.0004408 on October 8 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.0004476, and closed at 0.000428 by 12:00 ET on October 9. The pair experienced a 24-hour trading volume of 558,297,600 USDT and a notional turnover of approximately $244,000. The session was marked by a sharp late-day selloff after a brief midday rally.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern suggests a bearish bias over the last 24 hours, with a prominent bearish engulfing pattern forming around 02:00–04:00 ET. This was followed by a sharp selloff in the early morning hours of October 9, breaking below key intraday support levels. A key support level appears to be forming near 0.000430, where the price found temporary stability but failed to retrace higher. A doji candle formed near the 0.000435 region, signaling indecision.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA, reinforcing a bearish bias. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) show a longer-term bearish tilt, with the 200 MA acting as a critical long-term resistance level. The price appears to be trending beneath all key moving averages, indicating continued pressure from bears.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained in negative territory throughout most of the session, with bearish divergence observed during the late afternoon selloff. RSI approached oversold levels in the final hours, reaching around 28–30, which may indicate a potential short-term rebound. However, the lack of immediate bullish follow-through suggests caution before assuming a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the selloff, with the Bollinger Bands widening to capture the sharp price decline. Price closed near the lower band, which is often seen as a signal for potential short-term reversion. However, given the bearish momentum, a sustained rebound is uncertain unless paired with a strong increase in volume and bullish reversal patterns.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the selloff from 0.000445 to 0.000430, confirming bearish momentum. The highest notional turnover occurred around 18:30–19:30 ET and again during the early morning selloff. However, a divergence between volume and price was observed as volume increased during the decline but failed to support a recovery, suggesting limited buying interest.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.0004476 to 0.000428, the 61.8% retracement level sits around 0.000436. This level may act as a short-term resistance for a potential rebound. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement level from the recent high-to-low range aligns with the 0.000434–0.000435 area, which appears to be a key psychological level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves a momentum-based long/short system triggered by divergences in RSI and MACD, combined with a volume filter. If applied to this 24-hour dataset, the strategy would have signaled a short trade at the 0.000445–0.000446 level as RSI showed bearish divergence and volume surged during the breakdown. A stop-loss would be placed near the 0.0004476 swing high, with a target at 0.000430, aligning with the Fibonacci 61.8% level. This hypothetical trade would have captured a 170-point move. However, a lack of follow-through above the 0.000435 resistance suggests the strategy may require a trailing stop or tighter risk management in volatile conditions.