Spell Token/Tether Market Overview

Summary• Price action suggests a volatile 24-hour range between $0.0003046 and $0.0003210.• Volume spiked in midday trading, with strong turnover confirmation of key price levels.• RSI-14 appears in oversold territory, indicating potential for short-term rebound.

Opening on 2025-11-07 at $0.0003093, Spell Token/Tether (SPELLUSDT) traded as high as $0.0003210 and as low as $0.0003046 before closing at $0.0003059 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-08. The pair experienced heavy volume, with over 817 million units traded, and a total notional turnover of $261.8 million. Price action revealed a consolidative range with potential resistance forming at $0.0003193 and support near $0.0003052.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a series of bearish reversal patterns, including a morning star and a bearish engulfing pattern, suggesting a potential shift in sentiment. Key support levels emerged around $0.0003052 and $0.000308, while resistance is likely at $0.0003193 and $0.0003210. The formation of a doji near the high of the 24-hour range indicates indecision in the market.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price action oscillated around the 20-period and 50-period SMAs, indicating a choppy session. The 50-period SMA is currently at $0.0003125, slightly above the 20-period at $0.000311, suggesting a bearish bias in the short term. On the daily chart, the 200-period SMA at $0.0003107 acts as a key level, with price sitting below it, indicating a longer-term bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The RSI-14 closed near 29, suggesting oversold conditions and a potential bounce in the near term. The MACD line is negative and crossing below the signal line, reinforcing the bearish momentum. Both indicators suggest that a reversal is possible, but the underlying trend remains downward biased.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained elevated throughout the day, with Bollinger Bands widening during high-volume periods. Price closed near the lower band at $0.0003059, indicating a possible retest of key support levels. A break below the lower band could signal a deeper pullback, but it may also represent a consolidation phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the midday and early evening hours, coinciding with sharp price swings. The highest notional turnover occurred between $0.0003193 and $0.0003210, indicating strong institutional participation. Price and turnover moved in tandem, suggesting confirmation of key levels rather than divergence.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent swings on the 15-minute chart show the price has retraced to the 61.8% level of the prior uptrend, currently at $0.0003052. This level appears to have provided support, and a break below it would suggest a deeper correction. On the daily chart, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the larger swing is at $0.0003093, which coincided with the opening price of the day, indicating a key psychological level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves using RSI-14 as a signal to enter long positions when the indicator falls below 30, followed by holding the position for three trading days. This approach is well-suited to identify oversold conditions and capture potential rebounds, particularly in volatile assets like SPELLUSDT. Given that the RSI closed in oversold territory at 29, the model may generate a buy signal at the next open. However, success of this strategy depends on continued low RSI readings and favorable price action.