Spell Token/Tether Market Overview

• Price dropped 29.2% from $0.0004233 to $0.0003413 over 24 hours, driven by a sharp sell-off after 19:30 ET.
• Volatility surged with a 10.5% intraday range, peaking at $0.0004273 and hitting a low of $0.0003348.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at $0.0004206 to $0.0004188, signaling short-term bearish momentum.
• Volume spiked sharply during the 19:30–21:00 ET window, indicating increased bearish participation.
• RSI hit oversold territory near 29, suggesting potential for short-term bounce or consolidation.

Market Snapshot and Price Movement

Spell Token (SPELL) traded against Tether (USDT) with a 24-hour session opening at $0.0004233 (12:00 ET–1) and closing at $0.0003413 by 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of $0.0004273 and a low of $0.0003348, with a total trading volume of $3,721,134,107 and a notional turnover of $603,277,744. The sharp decline after 19:30 ET marked a key turning point for the day.

Structure and Key Levels

The 24-hour price action showed a decisive breakdown from a prior support at $0.0003413 into $0.0003348. Key resistance levels appear to be forming around $0.0003423 and $0.000345, while support is likely at $0.000337 to $0.0003348. Notable patterns include a bearish engulfing at $0.0004206–$0.0004188 and a morning doji near $0.0003384, which may indicate consolidation after the heavy selloff.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed downward, reinforcing the bearish bias. Daily data showed the 50/100/200 SMAs aligned in a strong downtrend, with the price well below the 50 SMA, suggesting ongoing bearish momentum. The MACD histogram turned negative after 19:30 ET, while RSI fell to oversold levels near 29, hinting at a possible short-term bounce or consolidation phase.

Volatility and Turnover Analysis

Volatility expanded significantly during the 19:30–21:00 ET window, with a 15-minute candle printing a 9.9% range. Notional turnover surged to over $150 million during this period, confirming the bearish move. While volume increased, the price-to-volume relationship showed divergence near $0.0003391–$0.0003383, where volume dipped despite a continued drop, which may signal weakening bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci Retracements

Price spent most of the session inside the lower half of the Bollinger Bands, confirming the bearish bias. A sharp contraction in band width occurred before the breakdown, indicating a potential move. On Fibonacci retracements, the 61.8% level at $0.0003523 held as a resistance barrier before the sharp drop, reinforcing the idea that the move to $0.0003348 was a deep retracement of the earlier 15-minute rally.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves entering short positions when the 20-period MA crosses below the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern and RSI below 30. A stop-loss would be placed above the recent swing high, and a take-profit target could be set at the nearest Fibonacci level or key support. Given today's action, the conditions were met after 19:30 ET, suggesting this strategy could have captured a large portion of the selloff. However, the divergence in volume and the RSI hitting oversold levels may present a short-term bounce risk, warranting caution in overexposing to continued shorts.