Spell Token/Tether Market Overview – 2025-10-22

• Price dropped to 0.0003413 from a high of 0.0003692, closing 24 hours later at 0.0003442
• Volume surged to 80,010,236 at the 15-minute mark, followed by a mixed momentum signal in RSI
• Key support at 0.000342–0.000344 held briefly, while resistance failed multiple times during the session
• Volatile 15-minute swings created bearish engulfing and hanging man patterns in the mid-session
• Turnover peaked after 00:00 ET as price collapsed, but buying interest returned after 04:00 ET

At 12:00 ET–1 (16:00–16:15 ET 2025-10-21), Spell Token/Tether (SPELLUSDT) opened at 0.0003663, reached a high of 0.0003692, and closed at 0.0003442 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour trade produced total volume of 686,170,368.0 units and notional turnover of ~$240,000 (based on average price of ~0.0003495). The session showed a bearish bias with sharp intraday swings and diverging price-volume dynamics.

Structure & Formations

In the 15-minute timeframe, price broke below key support at 0.000342–0.000344 in the late Eastern time evening, triggering a downward spiral into the overnight session. Bearish engulfing and hanging man patterns emerged around 0.000346–0.000348, signaling short-term exhaustion. A brief rebound after 04:00 ET found resistance at 0.000346–0.000347, with a hanging man pattern reinforcing bearish pressure.

Moving Averages and Volatility

While 20/50-period moving averages (15-min) were not fully tracked, price moved below both late in the session. Overnight volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened, indicating increased uncertainty. Price frequently tested the lower band in the 0.000342–0.000345 range before a sharp retest occurred after 05:00 ET.

Volume and Momentum Divergences

Volume spiked at the session’s open but diverged from price in the afternoon, with declining prices and moderate turnover. After 00:00 ET, volume surged again during the sharp drop to 0.0003413, but the following rebound post 04:00 ET saw only moderate volume, hinting at potential exhaustion. Notional turnover was highest in the overnight collapse, but price failed to retest key resistance in the morning, suggesting buyers were cautious.

RSI and MACD Signals

RSI (14) crossed below 30 in the overnight session, pointing to oversold conditions, though price did not retrace significantly. MACD remained negative throughout the session, with a bearish crossover occurring around 00:00 ET. However, a brief divergence in the morning hinted at potential buying interest, though it was not enough to confirm a reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described earlier hinges on identifying RSI-14 oversold signals (e.g., below 30) to trigger buy entries. Given the RSI bottoming at ~30 in the overnight hours, a buy entry around 0.000342 could be tested. A sell would follow if price retested and held above 0.000344, with a stop-loss below 0.000341. This aligns with the observed rebound after 04:00 ET, though confirmation remains pending a close above 0.000346.

Looking ahead, buyers may attempt to retest 0.000346 as a near-term pivot, but failure to hold above 0.000344 could lead to further downside. Traders should remain cautious given the divergent momentum and fragile support, and consider short-term bearish setups on a break of 0.000342. Risk remains skewed to the downside in the immediate term.