Spain Jan. seasonally adj. real retail sales rise 4.0% y/y

Spain’s retail sector continued to show resilience in November 2025, with real retail sales rising 6.0% year-on-year, according to the National Statistics Institute (INE). This marked one of the strongest annual growth rates in recent years, though it followed a revised 4.1% increase in September and a 3.8% rise in October. The growth was driven by robust demand in food, beverages, and tobacco (5.4% y/y), as well as information and communication products (22.1% y/y). Non-food categories, including domestic equipment and healthcare, also contributed positively, reflecting sustained consumer confidence.

However, the pace of growth has moderated compared to earlier in 2025. For instance, August’s 4.7% y/y gain slowed to 4.5% in September and 4.2% in October, indicating a gradual normalization after a post-pandemic surge. Retail sales for cultural and recreation goods declined slightly (-0.5% y/y in November), contrasting with gains in other sectors.

Analysts project annual retail sales growth to ease to 3.5% by the end of the current quarter, with long-term forecasts pointing to an average of 2.0% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027. These projections suggest a return to more moderate growth as inflationary pressures ease and consumer spending stabilizes. Month-on-month data also showed mixed trends, with November’s sales stalling after two consecutive 0.4% monthly increases.

The sector’s performance highlights the importance of food and non-food categories in sustaining Spain’s retail market, while challenges in specific segments underscore the need for continued monitoring of consumer behavior and macroeconomic conditions.