Soybean Futures Set for Weekly Gain on US Demand Hopes

Soybeans are expected to end the week with a 2% gain, driven by hopes of strong US demand. Futures reached a one-week high, but gains were limited by a favorable US crop outlook. Despite this, US export demand remains a key factor in the market, with futures rising on optimism over demand.

Soybeans concluded the week with a 2% gain, driven by optimism about strong U.S. demand. Futures reached a one-week high, but the gains were limited by a favorable U.S. crop outlook. Despite this, U.S. export demand remains a key factor in the market, with futures rising on optimism over increased demand.

The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures finished higher on Wednesday, with analysts attributing the increase to hopes for enhanced U.S. export demand [1]. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported that exporters sold 120,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to undisclosed destinations for shipment in the 2025-26 marketing year. Traders speculated that China, the world's largest soybean importer, might be the buyer, though this was not confirmed [1].

U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Indonesia, a top-five U.S. soybean importer, had committed to purchasing $4.5 billion in American agricultural products as part of a trade deal [1]. This trade agreement is expected to boost U.S. soy exports.

The USDA is expected to report weekly U.S. soybean export sales of 200,000 to 600,000 metric tons for 2024-25 and 150,000 to 400,000 metric tons for 2025-26, according to a Reuters poll [1]. The most-active soybean contract on the CBOT, ZS1!, was flat at $10.26-3/4 a bushel as of 0033 GMT on Friday, while CBOT corn ZC1! was up 0.2% at $4.22 a bushel and wheat ZW1! was 0.4% higher at $5.35-3/4 a bushel [2].

CBOT soyoil (BOc1) rose 0.1% and was headed for a roughly 3.5% weekly gain, having earlier in the week touched its highest level in nearly two years [2]. The U.S. soybean export sales in the week ended July 10 reached 529,600 metric tons for 2025-26 shipment, beating analysts' expectations [2].

The U.S. soybean crush for the 2025/26 marketing year is forecast at a record-high 2.54 billion bushels, 50 million bushels higher than last month's forecast, supported by higher domestic use of soybean oil for biofuel production [3]. The USDA's proposed rule to increase the Renewable Fuel Standard volumes for calendar year 2026 and 2027, while reducing the number of Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) generated from imported biofuels, is expected to boost demand for domestically produced feedstocks, including soybean oil.

However, the U.S. soybean export forecast was reduced by 70 million bushels to 1.75 billion bushels due to higher exports for Argentina and higher soybean supply in Brazil by the end of September [3]. As a result, U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected to increase to 310 million bushels. The U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is forecast to decrease by 15 cents to $10.10 per bushel [3].

In summary, soybeans ended the week with a 2% gain, driven by optimism over U.S. export demand. While the favorable U.S. crop outlook limited gains, the market remains focused on the potential for increased exports, particularly to China and Indonesia.

References:

[1] https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L1N3TD0Y3:0-cbot-soybeans-advance-on-hopes-for-more-us-export-demand/
[2] https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L4N3TF01C:0-soybeans-head-for-2-weekly-gain-on-us-demand-hopes/
[3] https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/soybeans-and-oil-crops/market-outlook