Southern Copper Surges 8.38% to 119.50 on Technical Breakout

Southern Copper (SCCO) surged 8.38% in the most recent session, closing at $119.50 on elevated volume of 5.79 million shares. This significant upward move warrants a multi-faceted technical examination using the specified framework.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action reveals notable patterns. The September 24 surge formed a decisive bullish marubozu candle with minimal upper shadow, indicating sustained buying pressure throughout the session. This followed a hammer-like formation near $108 on September 19, which established support after the September 9 bearish engulfment near $106. Critical resistance now resides near the $121.48 yearly high (September 24), while support clusters around $115-$116 (August lows) and $108-$110 (September consolidation floor).
Moving Average Theory
The current price sits meaningfully above key moving averages. Both the 50-day and 100-day MAs slope upward near $104-$106, confirming an intermediate uptrend. The 200-day MA near $97 provides primary long-term support. The sequence remains structurally bullish, with the 50-day above the 100-day, which in turn surpasses the 200-day MA – a classic bullish alignment suggesting sustained upward momentum across timeframes.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram recently crossed above its signal line, demonstrating positive momentum acceleration aligned with the price surge. The KDJ oscillator reflects overbought territory (K:83, D:77), with %K hooking upward above %D, implying strong near-term momentum though susceptible to short-term exhaustion. No bearish divergence is apparent; both oscillators align with the recent breakout.
Bollinger Bands
The September rally pushed prices near the upper Bollinger Band (~$121), following a period of band contraction in late August and early September indicating diminished volatility. While touching the upper band signals short-term overextension, the band expansion itself validates the breakout's strength. The middle band (20-period MA, near $110) now becomes initial support.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume trends strongly confirm the recent breakout. The 5.79 million shares traded on September 24 exceeded the 20-day average volume significantly, lending high conviction to the breakout above the $115-$117 resistance zone. Earlier breakdowns (notably April 3-4 and July 30) coincided with high-volume sell-offs, while the August-September base formation saw volume diminish during consolidation – a classic accumulation signature preceding the breakout.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (~68) has ascended sharply but remains below the overbought threshold (70), mitigating immediate overheating concerns. It climbed from oversold levels near 30 during the August consolidation. The current reading suggests strengthening bullish momentum without signaling exhaustion, though continued sharp gains could push it into overbought territory which often precedes short-term pullbacks.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels to the significant upswing from the April 8 trough of $75.63 to the September 24 peak of $121.48 reveals critical retracement zones. The 38.2% level ($102.75) aligned with strong support during June-August consolidation, validating its technical relevance. The 23.6% level ($110.05) now constitutes immediate pullback support. The 50% retracement at $98.56 represents a deeper, high-convidence potential support zone should a more significant correction materialize.
Confluence and Divergence Observations
Notable confluence exists near the $110-$112 area, where the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, the 50-day moving average, and Bollinger Band midline converge, making it a robust support zone. Another major confluence zone exists around $102-$104 (38.2% Fibonacci, 100-day MA, and prior consolidation high). The primary divergence arises from the KDJ signaling overbought conditions while the RSI remains below its overbought threshold – this may suggest near-term consolidation is possible despite the strong bullish structure. Overall, volume, moving averages, and breakout confirmation via Bollinger Bands align positively, presenting a technically constructive outlook for Southern Copper contingent on holding the $110 support.