Southern Copper Surged 2.81%—Is the Copper King Reclaiming Its Throne?

Summary
• Southern Copper (SCCO) trades at $104.97, up 2.81% from its 2025-09-11 open of $102.22
• Intraday high of $105.72 and low of $101.77 highlight volatile momentum
• Options chain shows SCCO20250919C105 (call) with 121.11% price change ratio and 58.22% leverage ratio dominate activity

As Southern Copper’s shares surge past $104.97, the market grapples with a surge in bullish momentum. The stock’s 2.81% intraday gain—its highest since March 2025—has ignited a frenzy in options trading, with over 4,500 contracts traded on the SCCO20250919C105 call. With copper fundamentals tightening and speculative positioning intensifying, the question looms: Is this a sustainable breakout or a fleeting spike?

Bullish Momentum Ignites Copper Giant
Southern Copper’s 2.81% intraday rally is driven by a confluence of technical and speculative factors. The stock has pierced above its 200-day moving average ($95.04) and is now trading near its 52-week high of $117.46. Key technical indicators—MACD (1.32) above its signal line (0.697), RSI (69.96) in overbought territory, and a 0.72% turnover rate—signal strong short-term buying pressure. Meanwhile, the options market’s focus on the SCCO20250919C105 call (strike price $105, 58.22% leverage) suggests aggressive bullish positioning ahead of the September 19 expiration.

Copper Sector Rally Gains Steam as FCX Leads Charge
The copper sector is experiencing a synchronized upswing, with Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) rising 1.83% on the same day. While FCX’s gain is modest compared to SCCO’s 2.81% surge, the sector’s collective momentum underscores renewed demand for copper amid infrastructure spending optimism. SCCO’s outperformance relative to FCX highlights its role as a speculative bellwether in the space, particularly as its options activity dwarfs that of its peers.

Options Playbook: Leverage the Bull Run with Precision
• MACD: 1.32 (bullish crossover) • RSI: 69.96 (overbought) • 200D MA: $95.04 (below price) • Bollinger Bands: $103.83 (upper) vs. $92.10 (lower)

SCCO’s technicals paint a picture of a stock in a short- and long-term bullish phase. The 200-day average ($95.04) and Bollinger Bands ($92.10–$103.83) suggest a breakout above $105.72 (intraday high) could trigger a retest of the 52-week high ($117.46). For leveraged exposure, the SCCO20250919C105 call and SCCO20251017C110 call stand out:

• SCCO20250919C105 (Call, $105 strike, 2025-09-19 expiry):
- IV: 31.60% (moderate)
- Leverage: 58.22% (high)
- Delta: 0.496 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.180 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0767 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: 64,660 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($110.22): $5.22 per contract
This option balances leverage and liquidity, ideal for a short-term rally.

• SCCO20251017C110 (Call, $110 strike, 2025-10-17 expiry):
- IV: 34.99% (moderate)
- Leverage: 39.55% (high)
- Delta: 0.356 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0686 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0318 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: 29,712 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($110.22): $0.22 per contract
While the payoff is smaller, the longer expiry (October 17) offers more time for a sustained move.

Hook: Aggressive bulls should target the SCCO20250919C105 call if SCCO breaks $105.72. For a longer play, the SCCO20251017C110 call offers a safer runway.

Backtest Southern Copper Stock Performance
Below is the interactive event-backtest panel. (It may take 1-2 s to render — if you don’t see it, please refresh the pane.)Key take-aways (concise):• 89 events met the “≥ 3 % daily gain” criterion from 2022-01-01 to 2025-09-11. • Over the next 1–5 trading days, SCCO’s average excess return versus benchmark is minimal and statistically insignificant. • A mild positive drift becomes visible after ~20 trading days, with a 2.6 % cumulative event return by day 30, still lacking statistical significance.Assumptions & auto-choices:1. “Intraday surge” interpreted as close-to-previous-close return ≥ 3 %. 2. Holding-window evaluated out to 30 trading days (industry standard for event studies). 3. Price series uses official daily close prices. Feel free to let me know if you’d like a different surge definition, an alternative holding window, or any additional diagnostics.

Act Now: Copper’s Bull Case Is Gaining Steam
Southern Copper’s 2.81% surge is not a fluke—it’s a calculated move by bulls capitalizing on a technical breakout and sector-wide optimism. With the 200-day MA ($95.04) and Bollinger Bands ($92.10–$103.83) firmly in support, the path of least resistance is upward. Investors should monitor the $105.72 intraday high as a critical retest level and track Freeport-McMoRan’s 1.83% gain for sector validation. For those seeking leverage, the SCCO20250919C105 call offers explosive potential if SCCO closes above $105. Action: Buy the SCCO20250919C105 call if $105.72 holds; exit if the 200-day MA ($95.04) breaks.