Southern Copper cae un 4.1% debido a la volatilidad del mercado del cobre: ¿Qué será de SCCO?

Summary
• Southern Copper (SCCO) slumps to $156.19, down 2.43% from its $160.08 previous close
• Copper prices hit $5.9/lb as U.S. tariff uncertainty and mine disruptions tighten global supply
• Options chain sees explosive activity in 150/155 put contracts, with leverage ratios exceeding 90%

Today’s sharp selloff in SCCO mirrors a broader commodities rout as copper markets grapple with Trump-era tariff risks and a looming supply deficit. With the stock trading near its 52-week low of $72.75, investors are scrambling to assess whether the red metal’s recent rally has peaked. The intraday range of $151.60 to $157.32 underscores extreme volatility, driven by geopolitical tensions and operational challenges at key mines.

Copper’s Supply-Demand Imbalance and Trump Tariff Uncertainty Drive SCCO’s Sharp Decline
SCCO’s 2.43% drop reflects a perfect storm of macroeconomic and operational headwinds. Sector-wide, copper prices have surged to $5.9/lb on the Comex but retreated from record highs as traders booked profits. The Trump administration’s deferred decision on refined copper tariffs has created a fragmented global supply chain, with U.S. inventories swelling to 450,000 tons—five times 2025 levels. Meanwhile, mine disruptions in Chile, Indonesia, and the DRC have exacerbated supply constraints, while China’s bonded warehouse stocks are being raided to meet U.S. demand. These factors have pushed SCCO’s price below its 200-day moving average of $109.88, signaling a breakdown in long-term technical support.

Copper Sector Volatility Intensifies as Freeport-McMoRan Also Falters
The copper sector is under siege, with sector leader Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) down 2.21% alongside SCCO’s 2.43% decline. Both stocks are reacting to the same tailwinds: mine outages, Trump tariff uncertainty, and a tightening global supply. While FCX’s exposure to Indonesia’s Grasberg mine—a site of recent mudslides—adds to its vulnerability, SCCO’s U.S.-listed copper production faces direct pressure from the CME-LME arbitrage. The sector’s collective 30-day turnover rate of 1.24% highlights extreme liquidity demands as investors hedge against further price swings.

Bearish Options and Leveraged ETFs Highlight Aggressive Short-Side Opportunities
• 200-day average: $109.88 (well below current price)
• RSI: 72.62 (overbought territory)
• MACD: 4.48 (bullish divergence fading)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $156.19 vs. upper band $155.68 (oversold signal)

SCCO’s technicals suggest a breakdown is imminent. The stock is trading below its 30-day moving average of $141.79 and within a 5% range of its 52-week low. For aggressive short-side positioning, two options stand out: SCCO20260116P150 and SCCO20260116P155.

• SCCO20260116P150
- Type: Put
- Strike Price: $150
- Expiration: 2026-01-16
- IV: 41.19% (moderate volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 94.90% (high reward potential)
- Delta: -0.2501 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0732 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0298 (strong price sensitivity)
- Turnover: $46,230 (high liquidity)
- Payoff (5% downside): $5.95 per contract (max profit if SCCO drops to $148.38)
- Why it works: High leverage and gamma make this contract ideal for a 5% pullback, with theta decay manageable given the Jan 16 expiration.

• SCCO20260116P155
- Type: Put
- Strike Price: $155
- Expiration: 2026-01-16
- IV: 42.72% (moderate volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 43.50% (balanced risk/reward)
- Delta: -0.4251 (strong sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0497 (low time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0354 (high price sensitivity)
- Turnover: $13,480 (solid liquidity)
- Payoff (5% downside): $8.75 per contract (max profit if SCCO drops to $148.38)
- Why it works: Strong delta and gamma position this as a top-tier bearish play, with low theta decay preserving value as expiration nears.

For ETF exposure, Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares (SPXL) offers 0.22% gains but is a long-biased play. Aggressive bulls should instead focus on the put options above, which align with SCCO’s technical breakdown and sector-wide bearish momentum.

Backtest Southern Copper Stock Performance
The backtest of SCCO's performance after an intraday plunge of -2% from 2022 to the present shows favorable short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-Day win rate is 52.82%, the 10-Day win rate is 54.49%, and the 30-Day win rate is 55.53%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the immediate aftermath of the plunge. The maximum return during the backtest was 7.25% over 30 days, suggesting that while there may be volatility, SCCO has the potential for recovery and growth.

SCCO at Pivotal Crossroads: Break Below $145.88 Could Trigger 200D MA Re-test
Southern Copper’s 2.43% drop has exposed the fragility of its recent rally, with technical indicators and sector dynamics pointing to further downside. The stock’s proximity to its 200-day moving average of $109.88 and the 52-week low of $72.75 creates a high-risk environment. Investors should closely monitor the $145.88 middle Bollinger Band level and the 30-day support range of $139.70–$140.43. If SCCO breaks below $136.07 (lower Bollinger Band), the 200D MA becomes a critical target. Meanwhile, sector leader Freeport-McMoRan’s 2.21% decline underscores the sector’s vulnerability. Aggressive traders may consider the SCCO20260116P150 put for a 5% downside scenario, while long-term investors should wait for a clearer breakout above $157.32 to re-enter bullish positions.