South Korea Reverses Population Decline: Foreign Influx and Aging Demographics Shape Future

South Korea has experienced a population increase after a two-year decline, with recent data showing an increase of 82,000 people in the past year. According to the Statistics Korea's 2023 Population and Housing Census, as of November 1, 2023, the total population stands at 51.77 million, marking a 0.2% rise from the previous year. In 2021, South Korea saw its first population decline since 1949, followed by a further 0.1% decrease in 2022. This recent uptick comes after South Korea declared a "population emergency" in June, with President Yoon Suk-yeol highlighting the nation's critical low birth rate and aging population as significant threats. South Korea's population count is based on birth and death records, as well as the influx of foreigners staying in the country for more than three months. The primary driver behind the population increase is the 10.4% rise in the number of foreign residents, a factor bolstered by the government's extended work visa programs. The number of foreign residents climbed by 180,000 to reach 1.935 million. Notably, residents from China and Vietnam make up over half of this foreign population. Foreign labor has become increasingly crucial to South Korea's workforce, especially in sectors like manufacturing, construction, and services, supported by the Employment Permit System introduced in 2007. The number of foreign workers entering the country with E-9 visas has risen from 52,000 in 2021 to 69,000 in 2022. The recent labor laws have expanded to include roles like nursing assistants and aviation manufacturing workers, addressing severe domestic labor shortages. Despite this foreign influx, the native South Korean population continued to decline by approximately 0.2% to 49.84 million. The most significant demographic shift has been the aging population, with the number of elderly people aged 65 and above increasing by 462,000 to 9.609 million, nearing the 10 million mark. Concurrently, the total fertility rate hit an all-time low of 0.72, the lowest among developed nations, exacerbating concerns about sustaining population levels without significant immigration. Birth rates continue to plummet, with only 235,000 births in 2023, the lowest recorded, and the trend appears grim with only 60,000 births in the first quarter of this year. The scholar Kim Yun-jun suggested that the birth rate could further decline throughout the remaining quarters. Demographic shifts also impact urban development, as highlighted by the Employment Information Service’s introduction of the "City Disappearance Risk Index," which correlates young female populations to the elderly demographic. Alarmingly, the city of Busan has an index value of 0.490, just below the national average, indicating significant aging. As of March, Busan's elderly population stood at 23%, marking it as Korea's lone "super-aged" city. In response to these challenges, the Aging Society and Population Policy Committee announced plans to alleviate housing burdens on families with young children. These measures include prioritizing government housing for families with children under two years old and removing size restrictions on public housing eligibility. Additional efforts from the government in June included family-friendly loans, tax incentives, and increased childcare subsidies. Historical data shows that South Korea's total fertility rate dropped from over 5 in the early 1960s to 1.6 by 1990 as economic development surged. Although policies from the mid-2000s temporarily boosted the birth rate, it has been declining since 2013. Since 2006, the government has invested around 360 trillion Korean won in various subsidies to encourage childbirth, with President Yoon’s administration focusing on balancing work, family, child-rearing, and housing issues to address the demographic crisis.