Sophon/Tether (SOPHUSDT) Market Overview for 2025-11-11

Summary
• Price dropped from $0.02433 to $0.02243 amid sharp bearish momentum.
• High volume and expanding volatility suggest a critical near-term support test.
• Oversold RSI and Fibonacci levels may trigger a short-term rebound.

Sophon/Tether (SOPHUSDT) opened at $0.02331 on 2025-11-10 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of $0.02433, and fell to a low of $0.02181, closing at $0.02243 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume totaled 73,853,418 SOPH with a turnover of $1,670,330 USD. The price action shows a strong bearish shift from midday to early evening ET.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels formed near $0.02243 and $0.02181, with a notable bearish engulfing pattern forming on the 15-minute chart during the late-night sell-off. A low-volume doji at $0.02343 suggests indecision at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the prior upswing, potentially acting as a false break or a reversal sign.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price broke below both 20 and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing bearish momentum. The 50/100/200-day averages on the daily chart remain in a descending order, suggesting a broader downtrend remains intact.

MACD & RSI

MACD crossed below the signal line, confirming a bearish divergence. RSI is in oversold territory at ~29, which may set up a short-term bounce but does not confirm a reversal. Momentum remains firmly bearish, with no sign of accumulation at key supports.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply as price fell from the upper band to the lower band. Price closed near the lower band on the 15-minute chart, aligning with the oversold RSI. A break above the middle band would indicate improved sentiment but remains unlikely without higher volume.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the late-night sell-off, with the largest candle (18:30–18:45 ET) accounting for 39.7% of total volume. Notional turnover also surged during this period, confirming the strength of the move. However, recent volume has been declining, suggesting bearish momentum may be waning.

Fibonacci Retracements

The price is currently at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the recent upswing from $0.02181 to $0.02433. A close below $0.02243 could trigger a test of the 78.6% level near $0.02146, with key support below that at the $0.02100 psychological level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described in the input involves identifying MACD death-cross signals as potential trade entries. Based on today’s analysis, a death-cross occurred during the late-night bearish acceleration, aligning with the large-volume sell-off. A strategy backtest could simulate a short position at that entry, with exit rules based on either a 5-day hold, a golden cross, or fixed stop-loss/take-profit levels. The recent RSI divergence and volume contraction suggest caution in assuming further downside without confirmation.