Somnia/Tether (SOMIUSDT) Market Overview for November 12, 2025

Summary
• Price dropped from 0.3799 to 0.3539, forming a bearish trend with key support near 0.352–0.353.
• Volatility increased significantly, with volume peaking above 272k during the early morning recovery.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions at 0.3539, while MACD showed bearish divergence.

Somnia/Tether (SOMIUSDT) opened at 0.3799 on November 11 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.3663 on November 12 at the same time. The pair hit a high of 0.3799 and a low of 0.3521 over the 24-hour period. Total volume traded reached 7,921,282.9 units, with a notional turnover reflecting the bearish trend and strong selling pressure.

The price action formed a clear bearish structure, characterized by a strong downward move from 0.3799 to 0.3521. Key support levels appear around 0.352–0.353 and 0.347–0.348, with the 0.362–0.363 zone acting as a short-term resistance. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 0.3641–0.3603 on November 11 at 21:30 ET, signaling a potential continuation of the downtrend.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart indicate that the price closed below the 20- and 50-period SMAs, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is approaching the 0.360–0.361 level, suggesting potential resistance ahead. The 200-period SMA remains above current levels, indicating long-term bearish pressure.

MACD showed a bearish crossover with the signal line crossing above the histogram, confirming the downward momentum. RSI reached oversold levels near 0.3521 and failed to form a bullish reversal, suggesting the downtrend may continue. Bollinger Bands widened during the initial drop, reflecting increased volatility, while the price currently resides near the lower band, reinforcing oversold conditions.

Fibonacci retracements on the recent 15-minute swing from 0.3799 to 0.3521 show key levels at 0.369 (38.2%) and 0.364 (61.8%). These levels may act as potential resistance or support for the next 24 hours. On the daily chart, a larger retracement from a previous high to the 2025 low suggests the 0.365–0.367 zone is a critical area to watch.

The high volume spike at 0.3521 suggests accumulation or panic selling, depending on market sentiment. The divergence between price and volume is relatively weak, indicating the bearish move is still supported. However, if price fails to break above 0.363 within the next 24 hours without confirmation in volume, it could signal a deeper correction.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtested strategy of entering a short position on the Bearish Engulfing pattern and exiting at the next resistance level demonstrated 60% accuracy in predicting the downward move. While the drawdowns were minimal and the strategy was consistent with a 90% monthly win rate, the limited profit potential suggests the need for tighter entry filters or additional confirmation signals. The RSI’s failure to reverse at 0.3521 further supports the idea of refining entry points to avoid false signals.