SOLMXN Market Overview: Volatility Expands Amidst Strong Bearish Momentum

• Price dropped 3.23% from 3,742 to 3,607 SOLMXN over the 24-hour window.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 3,742 following strong volume activity.
• RSI entered oversold territory near 30, indicating potential for a short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands showed a slight expansion during the sharp decline, highlighting rising volatility.
• Volume surged during the 18:30–20:30 ET session, confirming the bearish breakdown from key support.

The Solana/Mexican Peso pair (SOLMXN) opened at 3,742 on 2025-10-28 at 12:00 ET and closed at 3,607 on 2025-10-29 at 12:00 ET, recording a 24-hour low of 3,527 and a high of 3,742. Total volume traded was 43.375, with a notional turnover of approximately 156,064 MXN. The price action reflected a strong bearish bias, particularly during late evening and early night hours in New York, as a bearish engulfing pattern formed on a key 15-minute candle.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a clear bearish crossover, with price remaining well below both lines. The 50-period MA has held as a dynamic resistance, with multiple attempts to test it failing. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 3,580 aligns with a recent swing low, making it a key area to watch for a potential bounce or breakdown. Bollinger Bands widened during the 18:30–20:30 ET session, signaling increased volatility and a potential continuation of the downtrend.

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The RSI on the 15-minute chart dipped below 30, entering oversold territory, while the MACD line crossed below the signal line with a bearish divergence. This suggests that while momentum is currently bearish, there could be a short-term pullback or consolidation. Volume spiked during the breakdown from 3,742 to 3,682, confirming the move, but waned afterward, indicating some exhaustion in the bearish pressure. A divergence between price and RSI could hint at a temporary pause in the decline before further bearish action.

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Backtest Hypothesis
Applying the described strategy to the recent 24-hour price action, we see potential opportunities for a short-term long position near the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 3,580, supported by the RSI entering oversold territory. A bearish continuation trade could also be considered near 3,527 if the price retests this level with strong volume. Traders using a 50-period MA as a dynamic trigger line may look to exit long positions as price approaches it from below. These signals suggest that the market may see a consolidation phase before a new directional move, with risk management being essential given the low liquidity and sporadic volume.