SOLMXN Market Overview: Volatility and Divergence in Solana/Mexican Peso

Summary
• • •
• Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) experienced a sharp pullback with a key bearish reversal pattern near 2997.
• Momentum dipped below 30 on RSI, signaling oversold territory, though volume remained muted.
• Price consolidated in a narrow range post 22:00 ET with minimal turnover, suggesting indecision.

SOLMXN opened at 2997.0 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at 2968.0 by 12:00 ET, with a high of 2997.0 and a low of 2779.0. The pair traded on a total volume of 36.614 units and a turnover of approximately MXN 105,615.33 (based on average price). The price action shows a sharp drop into the evening, followed by a tentative rebound overnight and early morning, ending the 24-hour window with a modest recovery.

Structure & Formations

A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 17:00 ET with an open of 2997.0 and a close of 2906.0, followed by a lower low at 20:30 ET (2779.0), which could be a significant support zone. Later in the session, a bullish reversal candle formed at 05:15 ET (2920.0 to 2968.0), hinting at short-term buying pressure. However, the inability to push past 2997.0 suggests resistance remains intact.

Moving Averages & Momentum

A 20-period 15-minute moving average shows the price is below the mean for most of the session, reinforcing the bearish bias. RSI-14 crossed below 30 at 01:30 ET and remained in oversold territory until the overnight rebound. MACD turned negative during the early evening selloff and remained bearish, though the 24-hour close saw a slight divergence with a rising price but flattening MACD line—potentially a sign of accumulation.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the 20:30–21:00 ET selloff as the price dropped from 2878.0 to 2779.0, indicating a volatility spike. Later in the session, the price remained within a narrow range near the lower band, suggesting a consolidation phase. The overnight rebound pulled price closer to the middle band but did not break out of the 2930–2970 range.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 20:30–20:45 ET period with a 0.8 volume candle and a drop from 2878.0 to 2779.0. However, subsequent volume remained low even as price moved higher, indicating a divergence between volume and price that could signal a lack of conviction in the recovery. Turnover during the selloff was significant, but overnight buying was largely volume-neutral.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 20:30–21:00 ET low at 2779.0 to the 05:15 ET high at 2968.0 shows a 289-point move. Key Fibonacci retracement levels are around 2877 (38.2%) and 2917 (50%), which align with several key candle closes. The 2968.0 level could serve as a psychological resistance zone for the next 24–48 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the RSI-14 dropping below 30 multiple times over the past 24 hours, a simple “buy on oversold, sell next day” strategy appears viable in this market. However, the low volume and price-volume divergence during rebounds suggest caution. A more robust backtest would require a larger dataset and confirmation that these RSI triggers are actionable in this thinly traded pair. If a higher-volume time window or additional RSI timeframes are available, the strategy could be better validated.