SOLMXN Market Overview

• Price fell from 4030.0 to 3866.0 in 24 hours, driven by a sharp decline early in the session.
• Momentum slowed significantly, with RSI showing oversold potential near the session close.
• Volume collapsed after a brief spike in late night trading, suggesting weak conviction in price movements.
• Price remains within Bollinger Band contraction, indicating low volatility and potential for a breakout.
• A key support level forms at 3665.0 following a bearish engulfing pattern in early morning data.

The Solana/Mexican Peso (SOLMXN) pair opened at 4030.0 on 2025-09-23 at 12:00 ET, peaked at 4030.0, and closed at 3866.0 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-24. The total trading volume over the 24-hour window was approximately 39.754 SOL, while notional turnover reached 159,323.1 MXN. The price moved within a clear downward trend, forming a bearish structure after a brief consolidation in late hours.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a bearish engulfing pattern on the 15-minute chart at 03:30 ET, where the open was 3960.0 and the close was 3831.0—nearly a 150-point drop. This suggests increased bearish momentum. Later, a small bullish reversal formed at 06:00 ET, with a candle opening at 3812.0 and closing at 3866.0, though this failed to break above 3866.0, reinforcing the bearish trend. A strong support level appears forming at 3665.0 after a sharp drop at 03:30 ET, which may hold in the short term or attract buyers.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended downward, indicating a strong bearish bias in short-term momentum. The 50-period line sat slightly above the 20-period line, forming a death cross pattern. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA was below the 100- and 200-period MAs, further confirming a medium-term bearish trend. Prices remain well below these averages, suggesting continued bearish pressure.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish crossover with the signal line in early hours, followed by a slow divergence as price declined without a corresponding strong bearish MACD signal. The RSI dropped into oversold territory by the end of the 24-hour period, hovering near 28. This may signal a potential short-term bounce, though the overall bearish trend remains intact.

Bollinger Bands

Price action remained within a tight Bollinger Band contraction for most of the session, indicating low volatility. The late-night drop broke out of this contraction and closed near the lower band, reinforcing bearish sentiment. A potential rebound may occur near the 3866.0 level, which coincides with the upper boundary of the recent contraction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply at 03:30 ET with a 15.774 SOL move, signaling a major bearish shift. This was followed by several hours of near-zero volume, suggesting a lack of conviction in the bearish move. Notional turnover mirrored the volume spikes, with little activity after 04:00 ET. A divergence between price and volume may hint at a potential reversal in the near term.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 15-minute decline from 4030.0 to 3665.0, key levels include 3911.0 (38.2%) and 3798.0 (61.8%). Price briefly tested the 3911.0 level before falling again, indicating it failed as a support. The 3798.0 level may be a critical level to watch in the next 24 hours, as it could trigger further bearish action or serve as a temporary support.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing pattern at 03:30 ET and the subsequent consolidation near 3866.0, a potential backtest strategy could focus on a short entry at the close of the bearish engulfing candle, with a stop loss placed just above the high of 3960.0. A target could be set at the 3798.0 Fibonacci level. This approach would capitalize on the bearish momentum observed in the 15-minute timeframe, leveraging both candlestick patterns and key retracement levels for a defined risk-reward profile. The low volume after the spike also suggests a continuation of the bearish trend is more likely than a reversal.