SOLJPY Market Overview: Strong 24-Hour Breakout Amid Elevated Volatility

• Price surged to 34,651 on 15-min chart, driven by heavy buying in the 05:00–08:00 ET window
• MACD crossed above zero with strong bullish divergence, while RSI peaked at overbought levels
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened during late-night buying, confirming a breakout
• Fibonacci 61.8% retracement aligned with a key 15-min support level at 34,120, which held twice
• Volume surged to 378.768 in the 02:45–03:00 ET window, confirming breakout from consolidation

The Solana/Yen pair (SOLJPY) opened at 33,192 on the 24-hour 15-min chart and surged to an intraday high of 34,651 by the early morning hours, before closing at 34,120 at 12:00 ET. The price action saw a total trading volume of 5,854.45 and a turnover of 197,306,096.29 JPY during the 24-hour period, highlighting intense market participation.

Structure and formation analysis revealed a strong bullish breakout above a key consolidation range. The price found strong support at the 34,120 level, which coincided with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and a 15-min Bollinger Band midpoint. A morning session hammer candle at 02:45 ET, followed by a large bullish engulfing pattern, signaled a potential trend reversal. These patterns were confirmed by a sharp volume spike in the 02:45–03:00 ET window.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-min chart showed a clear bullish crossover, with the shorter MA crossing above the longer one in the early morning. This confirmed renewed buying pressure. The 50-period MA on the daily chart remained below the current price, indicating a strong short-term momentum. However, the 200-period MA still looms as a psychological resistance in the longer term.

The MACD histogram showed a bullish divergence with price, as the indicator expanded even while the pair pulled back slightly in the afternoon. The RSI reached overbought territory during the morning surge but failed to sustain the levels, suggesting potential exhaustion. Bollinger Bands widened during the breakout, reflecting increased volatility, with price hovering near the upper band during the strongest buying phase.

Volume and turnover data reinforced the breakout narrative, with the largest 15-min volume spike occurring at 02:45 ET (378.768 units). The notional turnover spiked in tandem with the breakout candle, confirming the strength of the move. No significant divergence between volume and price was observed, indicating strong conviction behind the directional move.

Fibonacci retracement levels were particularly effective in identifying key support and resistance areas. The 61.8% level at 34,120 acted as a critical floor during the afternoon pullback and morning recovery. On a 15-min chart, the 38.2% retracement level at 34,434 also acted as a psychological ceiling before the price continued upward. These levels may continue to play a role in the near-term price action.

Backtest Hypothesis: Given the recent bullish breakout pattern, aligned with Fibonacci support and confirmed by volume and momentum indicators, a potential backtest strategy could include entering long at the close of the breakout candle (34,131) with a stop loss below the 34,000 level and a target at 34,651 (the intraday high). This setup would test whether the breakout is a continuation or a reversal pattern. A trailing stop could be applied as the price moves above key moving averages and confirms the RSI divergence.