SOLJPY Market Overview: Bearish Exhaustion with Oversold Momentum

• SOLJPY opened at 35278.0 and closed at 32720.0, with a high of 35360.0 and low of 32620.0 over 24 hours.
• A broad selloff occurred post-midnight, breaking key support levels and accelerating toward a 32,600–32,800 range.
• Volume surged during the early morning sell-off, while momentum indicators turned deeply oversold by 08:00 ET.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly from 03:00–07:00 ET, signaling heightened volatility and a possible trend continuation.
• Fibonacci retracement levels suggest potential bounce support at ~32,600 or 32,400, but bearish continuation is more likely.

Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) opened at 35278.0 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at 32720.0 the following day at the same time, recording a high of 35360.0 and a low of 32620.0. Total volume traded over the 24-hour period was 12,493.921 units, with a notional turnover of approximately ¥419,866,800 (calculated from weighted average prices). Price action revealed a rapid decline following the 00:30 ET timeframe as Solana/Yen fell below critical psychological and Fibonacci support levels.

The structure of the price action suggests bearish exhaustion, with a strong breakdown after 01:00 ET and a continuation of selling pressure through the early morning hours. Notable bearish patterns include a dark cloud cover at 02:45 ET, a shooting star near 04:45 ET, and a long lower shadow at 08:45 ET, all hinting at potential short-covering or reversal attempts. Resistance levels cluster around 34,500, 35,000, and 35,200, while immediate support now sits near 32,600 and 32,400. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 32,620–35,360 move sits at ~33,800, which could act as a dynamic pivot in the next 48 hours.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a sharp divergence: the 20-period MA is significantly above the 50-period MA, creating a bearish cross. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is below the 200-period MA, confirming a broader bearish trend. The RSI has entered the 20–30 oversold range, suggesting potential for a bounce in the short term. However, the MACD histogram remains bearish, with negative momentum continuing to widen, indicating that the bearish trend could persist unless volume dries up or order flow reverses sharply.

Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly from 03:00–07:00 ET, suggesting heightened volatility and a continuation of the current trend. Price has since settled near the lower band at 32,620, indicating a high probability of further bearish continuation unless a strong reversal bar forms with increasing volume. The 20-period standard deviation is elevated, signaling that traders should expect increased stop-hunting or short-term volatility. Volatility may contract again if buyers step in near the 32,600 level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential short-term trading strategy could involve a bearish breakout from the 32,600–32,800 support range, with a stop-loss placed just above the recent high of 33,168. The target could be set at 32,400 or the 61.8% Fibonacci level of ~32,320. This strategy would align with the bearish momentum observed in the MACD, the oversold RSI, and the low volume at the 32,720–32,740 closing cluster. A trailing stop could also be applied if price moves favorably after the breakout, with the first 15-minute bar above 32,720 potentially signaling a reversal in short-term sentiment.