Solayer/Bitcoin Market Overview for 2025-11-03

• Price opened at $2.33e-06 and traded within a narrow range, reaching a high of $2.35e-06 before retreating.
• A distinct bearish trend emerged in the latter half of the day, with price dropping to $2.19e-06 by the 1545 ET candle.
• Volume spiked in the early morning and again in the late afternoon, indicating increased participation during key price moves.
• RSI showed bearish divergence with price, while MACD turned negative, signaling potential for further downside.
• Price tested and retested a key support level around $2.22e-06 but failed to hold, suggesting bearish momentum may continue.

The Solayer/Bitcoin pair (LAYERBTC) opened at $2.33e-06 on 2025-11-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at $2.19e-06 on 2025-11-03 at 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour high of $2.35e-06 and low of $2.12e-06. Total traded volume for the period was approximately 26,507.46 units, while notional turnover was modest due to the low price level.

The price formed a descending channel with multiple attempts to retest key support levels. A bearish engulfing pattern was visible at $2.24e-06, confirmed by the next candle moving below this level. A bearish flag pattern emerged following the morning consolidation, and the price broke below it with a clear follow-through. A doji at $2.25e-06 around 0800 ET indicated indecision, which was soon followed by a sharp decline.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a bearish crossover mid-day, with the price closing below both. The 50-period MA acted as resistance in the morning before being decisively breached. Bollinger Bands contracted during consolidation phases but expanded during the late afternoon sell-off, with price closing near the lower band, indicating oversold conditions.

MACD turned negative in the afternoon and remained below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum. RSI approached oversold levels (around 25) by the end of the period, suggesting a possible near-term bounce, though the divergence between RSI and price suggests further weakness is likely. Volume spiked during key breakdowns, especially in the late afternoon and early evening, confirming bearish price action. Notable divergences were observed between volume and price during minor bullish bounces, indicating weak conviction in the upside.

Fibonacci retracement levels were applied to the main 15-minute swing from $2.35e-06 to $2.19e-06. The 61.8% retracement level is at $2.25e-06, which was tested but failed to hold. The 38.2% level is near $2.29e-06 and may offer a short-term resistance if the price bounces.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the emergence of a bearish engulfing pattern and bearish divergences observed in both MACD and RSI, a potential backtesting strategy could be built around identifying similar setups in historical data. For instance, the bearish engulfing pattern formed at $2.24e-06 was followed by a continuation of the downtrend. A backtest would involve isolating similar patterns across a liquid proxy ticker, measuring the frequency of bearish follow-through, and assessing its win rate and risk-reward profile. This can be extended to daily patterns as well, especially in larger timeframes where volume and momentum confirmations are more reliable. A key requirement for such a backtest would be access to a liquid and historically available ticker, which may require adjusting the symbol or shortening the backtest period if data is sparse.