First Solar Outlook - Bearish Technicals Weigh Despite Strong Analyst Optimism

Market Snapshot

First Solar (FSLR.O) is underperforming technically with a weak outlook, despite strong analyst optimism and a price rise of 6.57% in the last month.

News Highlights

Recent headlines hint at broader structural and geopolitical shifts in the semiconductor and manufacturing sectors, indirectly impacting First Solar’s operations and supply chains.

• Japan’s cooperation proposals with the U.S. on rare earths and semiconductors may indirectly influence First Solar’s raw material and production costs, especially as the country seeks to reduce reliance on China.
• US Semiconductors ETF SOXX saw a massive $750M net outflow in May 2025, signaling risk-off behavior in the sector that could affect First Solar’s peer group and investor sentiment.
• McKinsey’s research on U.S. tariffs and supply chains underlines the vulnerability of capital-intensive manufacturers like First Solar to policy uncertainty and trade disruptions.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts remain overwhelmingly bullish on First Solar, with a simple average rating of 5.00 and a performance-weighted rating of 4.79. All three active analysts in the last 20 days issued a "Strong Buy" rating — a high level of consistency in sentiment. However, this optimism appears to clash with the technical landscape, which shows a weak trend.

Key fundamental factors reveal a mixed story:

• Net cash flow from operating activities per share (YoY growth rate): -199.31% — Internal diagnostic score: 2
• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders / Net profit: 100.00% — Internal diagnostic score: 1
• EV/EBIT: 35.77 — Internal diagnostic score: 3
• Interest coverage ratio (EBIT / Interest expense): -88.81% — Internal diagnostic score: 2
• Cash-MV: -0.86 — Internal diagnostic score: 3

Money-Flow Trends

First Solar is attracting positive attention from both large and small investors, with inflow ratios across all investor brackets above 0.49. The overall inflow ratio of 53.03% and block inflow ratio of 53.46% suggest growing institutional confidence, even as technicals remain bearish.

Key Technical Signals

First Solar’s technical outlook is bearish, with a technical score of 2.78 and 3 bearish indicators dominating the analysis.

• RSI Overbought: Internal diagnostic score of 1 — historically signals a 0% win rate with an average return of -9.4%.
• WR Overbought: Score 1 — linked to a 39.47% win rate and -2.01% average return.
• Long Upper Shadow: Score 1 — historically returns -2.06% with a 38.89% win rate.
• MACD Death Cross: Score 4.57 — appears neutral but has shown a 50% win rate with 1.94% average returns.

Recent chart patterns (Last 5 Days):

• 2025-09-05: Long Upper Shadow — bearish signal.
• 2025-09-04: WR Overbought — further bearish confirmation.

Key Insight: The technical side is weak, and it is suggested to avoid it. Momentum indicators are clearly bearish with no bullish counterpoints in the recent 5-day window.

Conclusion

First Solar is facing a classic case of divergence — analysts are optimistic, fundamentals are mixed, and technicals are bearish. While institutional money is flowing in, retail investors may be losing confidence. With three bearish indicators active and a technical score of just 2.78, the chart remains unattractive. Consider waiting for a pullback or avoid entering until the technicals align with the bullish fundamentals.