Solar/Bitcoin Market Overview

• Price declined sharply from 1.28e-06 to 7.4e-07 before stabilizing near 1.08e-06
• High-volume selloff observed around 21:30 ET, indicating bearish momentum
• RSI and MACD suggest oversold conditions, but rebound lacks conviction
• Volatility surged early on, then faded into consolidation
• Bollinger Bands narrowed following the selloff, suggesting potential for a breakout

Solar/Bitcoin (SXPBTC) opened at 1.26e-06 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.08e-06 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET. The pair hit a high of 1.28e-06 and a low of 7.4e-06 during the 24-hour window. Total volume traded amounted to 1,134,665.5 units, while notional turnover reached $1,128.68 (based on Bitcoin notional values). The session was defined by a sharp bearish move followed by a consolidation phase with limited follow-through.

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a strong bearish breakdown from a prior resistance at ~1.27e-06, which then evolved into a deep selloff, breaking below 1.1e-06 and testing as low as 7.4e-06. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed at the top of the initial move, while a long lower shadow at 1.08e-06 on the final candle suggests some short-term stabilizing demand. A key support level now appears to be forming around 1.08e-06–1.1e-06, with potential for a bounce or consolidation in this range if buyers emerge.

Volatility & Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked during the sharp selloff but has since contracted, with Bollinger Bands narrowing as the price consolidated near 1.08e-06. Price has settled just above the lower band, a sign that volatility has been compressed and that a reversal or breakout might be imminent. A break above the upper band could rekindle bullish momentum, but that would require a convincing move through the 1.11e-06–1.13e-06 range.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the price has been below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages for the majority of the session, reinforcing the bearish bias. The RSI hit oversold territory near 30 and has failed to close above 40, suggesting that the move lower may not have finished. The MACD remains in negative territory, with the histogram flattening in the last few hours, hinting at a possible exhaustion of the bearish leg.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the selloff, particularly between 21:30 and 21:45 ET, with a massive 270,082.7 units traded during that interval. However, volume has remained subdued in the consolidation phase, suggesting that the market lacks conviction for a follow-through. Notional turnover was concentrated in the breakdown phase, with little confirmation of sustained buying interest. A divergence between price and volume could signal a potential reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent bearish move from 1.28e-06 to 7.4e-06, the 61.8% retracement level is currently at ~1.11e-06, where price has tested multiple times. A rebound above this level could target the 78.6% retracement at ~1.20e-06, though that remains a distant target. The 38.2% level at ~1.03e-06 appears to have provided temporary support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The sharp selloff and consolidation suggest a potential opportunity to test a mean-reversion strategy around the 1.08e-06–1.11e-06 range. A buy signal could be generated on a close above the 1.11e-06 Fibonacci retracement level with a stop-loss just below 1.08e-06. This would align with the RSI showing oversold conditions and the MACD flattening, both suggesting that the bearish momentum may be losing steam. The strategy would require confirmation of volume on a rebound and would aim for a target of 1.14e-06 before considering an exit.