"Solana vs XRP: Race for First Crypto ETF Heats Up"

XRP and Solana are both vying for the next crypto ETF approval, each with a compelling case to be the first to secure regulatory clearance. Both digital assets have seen significant developments in recent weeks, with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) formally acknowledging a Solana-based ETF application on February 6, the same day four fund managers joined the line for XRP ETF applications.

On Polymarket, traders currently give Solana ETFs an 85% chance of approval in 2025, compared to XRP's 80%. However, betting volumes remain relatively low, with $34,748 staked on XRP and $65,761 on Solana at the time of writing. More activity has emerged around a nearer-term deadline, with bettors wagering $207,980 on Solana for an ETF approval by July 31, with odds at 36%, while XRP has drawn $102,069 in bets, with a higher 40% probability.

A few years ago, the idea of an XRP or Solana ETF would have been dismissed outright. However, the SEC's approval of spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs in January 2024, followed by Ether (ETH) products, has shifted the regulatory landscape in favor of crypto. The end of Gary Gensler's term as SEC chair concluded an era defined by what critics call "regulation by enforcement," and the US now has what market watchers are calling the first crypto-friendly president, Donald Trump, who took office on January 20.

Several factors have Polymarket betters predicting Solana has a better chance than XRP at being approved for an ETF first. The SEC's February 6 acknowledgment of Grayscale's application to convert its Solana Trust into an ETF has set an October deadline for a decision. Beyond regulatory momentum, Solana's strong network activity over the past year further strengthens its case. The blockchain has proven itself as a reliable network for transactions and smart contracts, most notably becoming the go-to chain for the recent memecoin trading frenzy, which saw billions in trading volume.

However, Solana remains entangled in securities-related legal challenges. In January, James Seyffart, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, predicted that an