Solana/Tether (SOLUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-09-20

• SOLUSDT declined from $239.96 to $237.24 during the 24-hour period, reflecting bearish momentum in the late hours.
• Key resistance appears around $239.0–239.2, with a recent break and retest.
• Volatility increased during the late-night/early-morning hours, with volume surging near the closing 15-minute candles.
• RSI showed oversold conditions in early afternoon but failed to trigger a strong reversal.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the final hours, indicating heightened market uncertainty.

The Solana/Tether (SOLUSDT) pair opened at $237.54 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-19 and reached a high of $239.96 before closing at $237.24 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-20. The 24-hour trading session recorded a total volume of 1,455,989.59 SOL and a notional turnover of $349,569,698.35. Price exhibited a bearish bias, with the final 15 minutes consolidating near the session low.

Structure & Formations

Price broke a key resistance level around $239.0–239.2 in early morning hours, only to retest it with a failed attempt, forming a bearish harami pattern. A significant intraday low of $237.24 followed, supported by a consolidation near that level in the final hours. A potential support zone appears between $237.15–237.65, as the price tested this range multiple times, including a bullish engulfing pattern near $237.28–237.24 in the early afternoon. A strong bearish trendline from the $241.22 high to the $237.24 close also suggests the pair may continue testing lower levels.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below $239.0, confirming a short-term bearish trend. Price remains below both lines, with the 50SMA at ~$238.8 and the 20SMA at ~$239.2. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period averages remain aligned, all above current price levels, reinforcing a bearish outlook for the near term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has turned negative for the past five hours, confirming bearish momentum. RSI dropped into oversold territory below 30 for a short period, but failed to trigger a reversal, suggesting exhaustion at current levels. A weak bearish divergence appears on the RSI, with higher highs not matching price action, indicating potential for further downside.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased significantly in the last 3–4 hours of the session, with the Bollinger Bands expanding from a width of ~$1.5 to ~$2.8. Price closed near the lower band, suggesting a continuation of bearish pressure. The recent expansion may be a precursor to a consolidation phase or a breakout attempt, but the current positioning near the bottom of the band implies traders remain cautious.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to $241,158,000 during the 15-minute session at 15:30 ET as price moved from $239.84 to $240.84. This was followed by a significant drop in turnover as the price retraced. The final 15-minute candle saw a modest volume increase, but not enough to signal a reversal. A divergence appears between volume and price action as the volume tapers during the decline, suggesting weaker conviction in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the high of $239.96 to the low of $237.24 show the pair closing near the 78.6% retracement level (~$238.0), a key psychological and technical level. The 61.8% retracement (~$238.6) and 50% level (~$238.5) are now acting as potential resistance, with the 38.2% level (~$238.9) also a likely barrier to upward movement. These levels may serve as short-term price anchors or reversal catalysts.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bearish consolidation and the formation of key Fibonacci and moving average support levels, a backtest strategy may consider a short-biased approach with a stop above the 50% Fibonacci level at $238.50. A 50-period moving average crossover below the 20-period line on the 15-minute chart could act as an entry trigger, with a target near the 61.8% retracement level at $238.60 and a stop-loss placed at $238.85. This aligns with the technical signals of bearish momentum and increasing volatility, as observed in the MACD and Bollinger Band analysis.