Solana/Tether Market Overview: Volatile 24-Hour Swing and Bearish Reversal

• SOL/USDT opened at $191.04, touched a high of $197.00, and closed at $189.45 with a 24-hour low of $188.44.
• Price experienced a sharp bearish reversal from $194.04 to $189.45 in the final 4.5 hours, with volume surging over $381k.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions early, diverging from a later price sell-off; Bollinger Bands widened midday, reflecting heightened volatility.
• Volume spiked to $381,453.43 during the 12:45 ET candle, confirming the sharp bearish move.
• A 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart acted as dynamic resistance during the morning rally.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-24, Solana/Tether (SOLUSDT) opened at $191.04 after a 24-hour session that saw prices range from a high of $197.00 to a low of $188.44. The pair closed the full 24-hour window at $189.45. Total trading volume amounted to approximately 1.46 million units, with notional turnover reaching $269,323.51. The session was marked by a sharp bearish reversal in the latter half of the day, driven by both price action and volume confirmation.

The candlestick structure from 12:00 ET–1 on October 23 to 12:00 ET on October 24 showed a strong bullish bias in the early hours, with a 20-period moving average acting as dynamic support. However, this shifted after 03:00 ET, when price action began to show signs of weakening. A large bearish candle at 12:45 ET—marked by a high of $197.0 and a low of $192.83—saw volume spike to over $381k, indicating strong conviction in the bearish move.

Key technical indicators reflected divergences. The RSI reached overbought levels in the early hours of the session, peaking at 70, but failed to maintain higher highs as price action declined. This divergence signaled a potential reversal. The MACD line crossed below the signal line in the early afternoon, reinforcing bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands expanded in the morning and narrowed in the late afternoon, indicating a contraction in volatility ahead of the final sell-off.

Volume and turnover were closely aligned, with no major divergences noted. However, the sharp decline in the last 4.5 hours was accompanied by a 30% increase in average volume, suggesting increased selling pressure. Fibonacci retracements of the key 15-minute swing from $193.44 to $197.00 revealed a 61.8% retracement at $194.04, which was the last point of consolidation before the steep drop.

The 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart acted as resistance during the morning rally, while the 20-period MA served as support in the early session. Traders may monitor the 200-period MA at $191.40 for a potential retest of key support levels. Given the current bearish bias and divergences in momentum, the price could continue to test lower levels in the next 24 hours, but a strong rebound above the 50-period MA could signal a short-term reversal.

A potential backtest hypothesis could center around using the MACD crossover and RSI divergence as a sell signal during overbought conditions. Given the RSI's overbought peak followed by a price decline, and the MACD’s bearish crossover, these indicators may form a reliable short-term trading strategy. Traders may look to enter short positions on the confirmation of a bearish MACD crossover and RSI divergence, with stop-loss levels placed above recent swing highs such as $193.00. This approach could be backtested using the 15-minute OHLCV data provided.