Solana (SOL): Key Technical Level to Watch for a Resumed Bull Run

Solana (SOL) has been a rollercoaster ride in October 2025, with its price plummeting to $182 on October 30 amid a 6% intraday drop, according to Investor Empires. This sharp decline, driven by a $205 million sell-off by institutional firm Jump Crypto, has thrust the cryptocurrency into a critical juncture. The market is now fixated on whether Solana can defend its $190 support level-a psychological and technical linchpin that could determine the next phase of its price trajectory.

The Technical Crossroads: $190 as a Make-or-Break Threshold

The $190 level is more than just a number-it's the lower boundary of Solana's ascending channel and a psychological benchmark for traders, according to a Coinotag analysis. Analysts argue that a successful defense here would validate the bullish case, potentially propelling the price toward $240 resistance and, eventually, $300, the Coinotag analysis suggests. Conversely, a breakdown below $190 could trigger a cascade to the $172–$180 range, shifting sentiment decisively to the bearish side, the Coinotag analysis warns.

Derivative market data underscores the urgency. Futures volume surged 7% to $32.61 billion, while open interest rose 2.28% to $10.32 billion, with the long/short ratio hitting 0.93-indicating a growing army of short sellers, Investor Empires reported. This bearish momentum is compounded by the fact that Solana's $100 billion market cap is now in jeopardy, having dipped to $100.03 billion at the time of the drop, Investor Empires noted.

Institutional Sentiment: ETF Inflows and the Race for Institutional Adoption

While technical indicators paint a mixed picture, institutional sentiment offers a counterbalance. Solana ETFs have defied the broader market's pessimism, with $37.33 million in inflows over three days in late October, according to a Coinotag report. This trend has continued for months, with $2.8 billion in total inflows for the year-driven by products like Bitwise's $BSOL ETF (initial volume: $130 million) and Grayscale's $GSOL, the Coinotag analysis notes.

These inflows are not just a function of market timing. They reflect Solana's unique value proposition: faster transaction speeds and a maturing DeFi ecosystem, Coinotag adds. Projected ETF inflows of up to $5 billion over the next two years, the Coinotag analysis projects, could provide a safety net for Solana's price, especially if U.S. regulators greenlight spot ETFs-a scenario that could mirror Bitcoin's institutional adoption curve, according to ZyCrypto.

The contrast with Bitcoin and Ethereum is stark. While Bitcoin ETFs saw $488.4 million in outflows on October 30, Coinotag reported that Solana's ETFs bucked the trend. This divergence highlights Solana's growing appeal as a high-performance alternative in a market increasingly skeptical of macroeconomic headwinds, including doubts about Federal Reserve rate cuts, Coinotag observed.

The Path Forward: A Delicate Balance

Solana's near-term outlook hinges on a delicate balance between technical resilience and institutional momentum. If the $190 support holds and ETF inflows continue, the price could retest the $202–$211 resistance zone-a critical area where the 20 and 50-day EMAs converge, according to CoinCentral. A clean break above this level would signal a potential trend reversal, with $250 as the next target, CoinCentral adds.

However, the risks are real. A breakdown below $190 would not only invalidate the bullish case but also expose Solana to broader market volatility, particularly if trade negotiations between the U.S. and China escalate, Investor Empires warned. For now, the market is watching-and waiting-for a definitive signal.