Solana (SOL) at Critical Fibonacci and Wave Count Inflection Points: Is a Deep Correction Imminent or a Bullish Reversal Looming?

Solana (SOL) has entered a pivotal juncture in November 2025, where technical and Elliott Wave analyses converge on key inflection points. The asset's price action, Fibonacci retracement levels, and on-chain metrics paint a nuanced picture: a potential bullish reversal looms, but bearish continuation risks remain entrenched. Investors must weigh these signals carefully, as the next move could redefine Solana's trajectory in the coming months.

Fibonacci and Elliott Wave: A Tale of Two Scenarios

Solana's price action in November 2025 reflects a complex interplay of Fibonacci retracements and Elliott Wave structures. On the weekly chart, the asset formed an impulsive bearish wave (i) peaking at $253.51, followed by a corrective wave (ii) that has yet to complete. Analysts project that wave (iii)-a 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave (i)-could target the $190–$200 zone as a retest area before resuming the downtrend. However, a long-term Elliott Wave count suggests that Wave 5 remains in play, with a projected 271% upside from current levels, aligning Fibonacci projections near $797 as a potential resistance target.

A critical Fibonacci level to monitor is the 0.618 retracement at approximately $155. This level coincides with the 50-week moving average and serves as a psychological threshold for bulls. If Solana holds above this level, it could signal the completion of Wave B within a larger corrective pattern, paving the way for a resumption of the uptrend according to technical analysis. Conversely, a breakdown below $155 would validate a deeper correction, with the 30-minute timeframe analysis suggesting a potential support zone between $134.40 and $131.61. A sustained close below $123.27 would invalidate the bullish scenario entirely.

On-Chain Divergence: A Contrarian Signal?

On-chain metrics add another layer of complexity. While Solana's network value remains robust-with 17.2 million active addresses and 543 million weekly transactions-price action has diverged sharply from this strength. Open interest in SOL futures plummeted to $7.2 billion by late November, down from a peak of $10 billion earlier in the month, signaling reduced liquidity and heightened slippage risks. Meanwhile, institutional inflows into Solana ETFs, such as the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL), reached $369 million in assets under management, contrasting with a 12-month low in daily active addresses (3.3 million).

This divergence suggests a tug-of-war between retail optimism and institutional caution. The RSI, currently at 37.25, indicates oversold conditions, but bearish momentum persists in the MACD and the formation of "Lower Highs" according to technical indicators. If Solana can reclaim the $140 support level, a recovery to $155 becomes plausible. However, a breakdown below $100 could trigger a deeper corrective phase, as liquidity constraints and regulatory uncertainties weigh on sentiment.

Bullish Reversal Potential vs. Bearish Continuation Risks

The most compelling bullish case hinges on the inverse head and shoulders pattern forming at the bottom of a descending channel. A successful hold above the neckline-currently around $160–$165-would align with the channel's upper boundary and validate a short-term reversal. Additionally, the completion of Wave B within a larger corrective structure could catalyze a resumption of the uptrend, targeting the 61.8% Fibonacci support level at $155.

Yet bearish risks remain formidable. The recent 5.24% price drop on November 13, 2025, broke critical support levels and triggered stop-loss orders, exacerbating downward pressure. Technical upgrades like Firedancer and Alpenglow, while promising for long-term scalability, have also introduced short-term volatility. Furthermore, the absence of a clear NVT ratio signal-a key valuation metric-leaves room for ambiguity in assessing whether the current price correction is a buying opportunity or a deeper bearish phase.

Strategic Positioning: Cautious Optimism with a Plan

For investors, the path forward demands a balanced approach. A tactical entry could be considered if Solana holds above $155, with a stop-loss below $140 to mitigate downside risk. However, given the bearish divergence in momentum indicators and the fragile liquidity environment, aggressive long positions remain ill-advised. Instead, a cautious "wait-and-see" strategy-monitoring the $133 and $123.27 support levels-could allow investors to capitalize on a potential rebound while avoiding a deep correction.

The upcoming Breakpoint conference in December 2025 may serve as a catalyst, but its impact will depend on whether Solana can stabilize above key Fibonacci and Elliott Wave thresholds. Until then, the market remains at a crossroads: a bullish reversal is possible, but the odds of a bearish continuation are still high.