Solana (SOL) at $126: Is Accumulation by Existing Holders the Key to Breaking $130?

The Solana (SOL) price action around $126 has become a focal point for investors and analysts, with on-chain behavioral patterns and market sentiment suggesting a potential inflection point. While the network's technical infrastructure and real-world utility have long been touted as catalysts for growth, recent data reveals that accumulation by existing holders-and strategic whale activity-may be the critical factor in determining whether Solana can break above $130 and reestablish bullish momentum.

On-Chain Accumulation: A Repeat of Historical Patterns

Solana's on-chain metrics in 2025 underscore its dominance in transaction volume and user activity, with 34 billion total transactions and 98 million monthly active users according to analysis. However, the network's ability to sustain price appreciation hinges on the behavior of its largest holders. Recent on-chain activity mirrors patterns observed in earlier cycles, where whale accumulation during pullbacks has historically preceded sharp rallies. For instance, on December 18, 2025, Solana dipped below $120, triggering a surge in whale purchases. A single wallet, G6gemN, acquired 41,000 SOL for approximately $5 million, signaling confidence in the asset's discounted valuation. This mirrors similar behavior eight months prior, reinforcing the idea that large holders view dips near $120–$126 as strategic entry points.

The accumulation narrative is further bolstered by reduced liquidity on centralized exchanges. A newly created wallet withdrew 200,001 SOL (worth $28 million) from Binance, effectively removing liquidity and tightening the supply available for short-term selling. This move, combined with a 12.76% weekly surge in decentralized exchange (DEX) volume to $24.613 billion, suggests growing organic demand and a shift toward on-chain trading. Such behavior typically precedes price consolidation and eventual breakouts, as large holders "lock in" their positions while retail activity stabilizes.

Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators

Market sentiment around the $126 level has also shifted in Solana's favor. Analysts note a broader rotation toward stablecoins and consumer payments, with Solana's low-cost, high-throughput network positioning it as a preferred settlement layer. This contrasts with the recent speculative fervor around memecoins, which has waned, creating room for more utility-driven assets to gain traction.

Technical indicators corroborate this narrative. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has shown a developing bullish crossover, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) exhibits a bullish divergence as selling pressure dissipates near recent lows. These signals suggest that buyer strength is accumulating within the $126–$145 range, a critical threshold for rekindling upward momentum.

The Role of ETF Inflows and Institutional Demand

While on-chain activity paints a bullish picture, institutional demand via exchange-traded products (ETPs) has also played a stabilizing role. Despite softer inflows in recent weeks, Solana ETFs recorded $11 million in net inflows during the same period, offsetting short-term selling pressure. This capital flow, though modest, indicates that institutional investors remain cautiously optimistic about Solana's long-term fundamentals, particularly its $15 billion in annualized revenue and $5 billion in application fees-figures that dwarf Ethereum's counterparts.

Is Accumulation the Key to Breaking $130?

The convergence of whale accumulation, reduced exchange liquidity, and improving technical indicators suggests that Solana's $126 level is more than a psychological barrier-it is a battleground for control of the price narrative. Historically, sustained accumulation by existing holders has been a precursor to breakouts, as it signals conviction in the asset's intrinsic value. The recent 28 million withdrawal from Binance and the surge in DEX volume exemplify this dynamic, reducing near-term supply while increasing demand for on-chain transactions.

However, challenges remain. Solana still trails Ethereum in foundational metrics like Total Value Locked (TVL) and developer activity, and macroeconomic headwinds could test the resolve of even the most bullish holders. That said, the network's ability to process 100 million daily active addresses and its growing role in real-world use cases provide a durable foundation for long-term growth.

Conclusion

For Solana to break above $130, the key lies not in speculative fervor but in the disciplined accumulation observed across on-chain and institutional channels. The $126 level has thus far held as a support zone, with whale activity and technical indicators pointing to a potential reversal. If this pattern continues-and if macroeconomic conditions stabilize-Solana could replicate the 1,100% gains seen in earlier cycles. Investors should monitor DEX volume, wallet activity, and ETF flows for further confirmation, but the current data strongly suggests that accumulation by existing holders is indeed the linchpin of Solana's next move.