Solana's Price Resilience and On-Chain Momentum: A Bullish Case for Near-Term Rebound
Solana (SOL) has demonstrated remarkable technical resilience in late 2025, with its price surging 65% year-to-date and consolidating between $210 and $225 as of September 11, 2025[1]. This consolidation phase, coupled with on-chain metrics suggesting undervaluation, presents a compelling case for near-term bullish positioning. Below, we dissect the interplay of technical indicators and on-chain momentum to assess Solana's potential for a sustained rebound.
Technical Resilience: Key Support and Resistance Levels
Solana's price action has been anchored by critical support and resistance levels. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages (at $187 and $171, respectively) confirm an upward trend[1], while the RSI (49–56) remains neutral, indicating room for further gains without overbought conditions[3]. Immediate resistance lies at $220, with a clean breakout expected to target $250 or higher[1]. Conversely, a breakdown below $210 could trigger a retest of the $204 support zone[1].
Historical backtesting of support-level events from 2022 to 2025 reveals that 53 such instances occurred[4]. On average, the cumulative return 30 days after a support-level event was approximately 8.4%, outperforming the 6.1% average for a buy-and-hold strategy over similar windows[4]. While win rates for these events hover near 55%—only marginally above random expectation—and t-tests show no statistically significant excess returns at the 5% level[4], the data suggests a modestly positive bias for holding support levels. This aligns with Solana's current consolidation, where bulls defending $210 could signal continued buyer confidence.
Recent price action reveals a bullish divergence in the RSI, with momentum turning upward despite consolidation near $225[4]. This suggests growing buyer confidence, particularly as institutional interest—driven by ETF filings and whale-level treasury activity—continues to bolster the ecosystem[2].
On-Chain Momentum: MVRV, NVT, and Whale Activity
On-chain metrics provide further validation for a bullish case. The MVRV Z-Score spiked to 1.34 on September 12—the highest in six months—historically preceding corrections of 12–23% in July and August 2025[1]. However, unlike prior bearish scenarios, exchange outflows since September 10 indicate accumulation rather than panic selling[1]. This suggests that current overvaluation signals may be temporary, with long-term holders stabilizing the price.
The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio for SolanaSOL-- stands at 42, significantly lower than Ethereum's 68[4]. This alignment between market value and transaction activity implies Solana is notNOT-- overvalued relative to its utility. A declining NVT ratio in recent weeks further supports this narrative, signaling a correction from overvaluation[3].
Whale activity, however, introduces complexity. A $836 million outflow to exchanges like Binance and Coinbase Institutional in late September raised concerns about selling pressure[4]. Analysts interpret this as strategic repositioning rather than panic, with whales potentially preparing for volatility or accumulation[4]. If this trend reverses, it could catalyze a rebound toward $260[4].
Bullish Case: Holding Support and Institutional Tailwinds
For Solana to resume its upward trajectory, bulls must defend key support levels. A hold above $210 would reinforce the $200–$225 consolidation range, with a potential breakout toward $250[4]. The 24-hour trading volume of $10.24 billion and rising TVL in DeFi ($9.5 billion as of December 2024[2]) underscore the ecosystem's robustness.
Institutional adoption further strengthens the bullish case. Seven firms filed ETFs including SOLSOL-- in September 2025, while Forward Industries secured $1.65 billion for SOL purchases[1]. These developments, combined with protocol upgrades like SIMD-025 (increasing block capacity to 60M Compute Units[2]), position Solana as a scalable, high-throughput network.
Risks and Cautions
Short-term bearish divergence in the 4-hour RSI and declining daily active addresses (down 27% in a week[4]) highlight risks. A breakdown below $210 could trigger a deeper correction toward $200, particularly if the SEC delays ETF approvals[4]. However, the broader trend remains intact as long as Solana holds above $199.32[3].
Conclusion: Strategic Entry for Near-Term Bulls
Solana's technical and on-chain fundamentals present a nuanced but compelling case for near-term bullish positioning. While short-term volatility is likely, the alignment of RSI neutrality, MVRV undervaluation, and institutional tailwinds suggests a potential rebound toward $250 or higher. Investors should monitor key support levels and whale activity, with a "Hold" rating recommended until a clear breakout above $215 occurs[3].
Comentarios
Aún no hay comentarios