Solana News Today: Solana's $140 Lifeline: SIMD-0411 Could Spark Rebound or Deepen Downtrend

Solana (SOL-USD) faces a critical juncture as traders and analysts debate its near-term trajectory following a steep decline that pushed the token below key technical support levels. The price has stabilized near $140, the lower boundary of its long-running ascending channel, but remains constrained by a cluster of exponential moving averages (EMAs) between $153 and $182, forming a thick overhead resistance zone according to technical analysis. A failure to reclaim the 20-day EMA or break above $153 could prolong the downward bias, according to technical analysts. Meanwhile, on-chain data suggests a potential rebound, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) showing improved momentum and spot demand surging as open interest rose 5% to $7.3 billion.

The Solana network itself is undergoing a transformative economic shift. A proposed disinflationary adjustment-SIMD-0411-seeks to double the annual disinflation rate from 15% to 30%, effectively cutting $2.9 billion in projected SOL emissions over six years according to economic analysis. Proponents argue this would accelerate the path to a 1.5% terminal inflation target by 2029 (originally scheduled for 2032) and reduce persistent sell pressure. While staking rewards are projected to decline sharply-from 6.41% to 2.42% by year three-advocates frame the change as a necessary step to align Solana's tokenomics with scarcity models seen in Bitcoin and Ethereum according to economic analysis.

Market activity underscores growing institutional interest. CoinGlass data highlights a 5% increase in futures open interest, while cumulative ETF inflows hit $390 million, driven by anticipation of future Solana ETF launches. This aligns with broader ecosystem expansion, including Coinbase's acquisition of Vector.Fun, a Solana-focused meme-coin trading platform according to financial reports. The move signals confidence in Solana's high-throughput network, which processed over $1 trillion in decentralized exchange volume in 2025. However, challenges persist: spot outflows continued in mid-November, with $3 million exiting the network on November 20, extending a distribution pattern that began in July according to technical analysis.

Price predictions remain mixed. A V-shaped recovery on the four-hour chart suggests a potential rally toward $170–$200 if the 20-day EMA at $160 holds according to technical analysis. Historical rebounds from the $130 support level-previously driving 80%–100% gains-further fuel optimism according to market data. Yet technical indicators caution against overconfidence: the RSI remains below neutral levels on daily charts, and institutional holders like Forward Industries report $711 million in unrealized losses on 6.83 million SOL purchased at $232.

The coming weeks will test Solana's resilience. A successful retest of $172 resistance or approval of SIMD-0411 could reignite bullish momentum, while sustained outflows or ETF underperformance might deepen the correction. For now, traders are split between defending the $140 lifeline and positioning for a rebound-though few dispute that Solana's structural challenges and opportunities have never been more intertwined.