Solana News Today: SEC Delays Solana ETF to 2025, But 95% Approval Odds Remain Unshaken

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has extended its review of spot Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications until late 2025, with major asset managers including Bitwise, 21Shares, and Franklin Templeton now facing final decision dates in October and November 2025. Despite these delays, market analysts and prediction markets remain optimistic, estimating a 90-95% probability of approval by late 2025 or early 2026 . The SEC's cautious approach mirrors its historical review of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, focusing on market integrity, custody protocols, and the classification of SOL as either a commodity or security .

Recent regulatory developments have streamlined the approval process. The SEC's adoption of generic listing standards for crypto ETFs in September 2025 eliminated the need for individual 19b-4 filings, accelerating the review timeline for token-specific products . Bitwise Asset Management's updated Solana Staking ETF filing, which includes a 0.20% unitary fee and a 0.00% fee for the first $1 billion in assets under management, exemplifies the competitive strategies emerging among issuers . This fee structure aligns with the aggressive pricing models that drove Bitcoin ETF adoption earlier in 2025 .

However, a potential U.S. government shutdown beginning October 1, 2025, poses a risk to the timeline. With over 90% of the SEC's staff furloughed, routine reviews are effectively paused, which could delay approvals for all pending crypto ETFs . Analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence and Polymarket have adjusted their forecasts to account for this uncertainty, though they maintain a high conviction in eventual approval .

Meanwhile, Solana's network activity has declined sharply, with daily transactions falling 50% from a peak of 125 million on July 24, 2025, to approximately 64 million by late September 2025 . This decline reflects reduced retail engagement and capital reallocation to alternatives like the BNB Chain. Analysts suggest that Solana's price movements are increasingly tethered to Bitcoin's trajectory, with sustained bullish momentum likely requiring a combination of ETF-driven inflows and on-chain recovery .

The approval of a Solana ETF is expected to catalyze significant institutional inflows, mirroring the $1 trillion institutional adoption wave seen with Bitcoin and Ethereum. Asset managers such as Fidelity, Galaxy Digital, and Invesco have already submitted applications, positioning themselves to capture management fees and diversify crypto product offerings . Companies with substantial SOL holdings, including Forward Industries and Upexi, stand to benefit from increased staking yields and network visibility. Conversely, competing smart contract platforms like Avalanche (AVAX) and Polygon (MATIC) may face heightened competition for institutional capital, particularly as Solana's low fees and high throughput continue to attract developers and users .

Regulatory clarity remains a critical hurdle. The Solana Policy Institute's efforts to classify SOL as a commodity contrast with the SEC's enforcement actions, which have labeled it an unregistered security in certain contexts. However, precedents set by Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF approvals suggest a resolution favoring institutional adoption is likely, especially with the existence of regulated futures markets and custody frameworks .

[1] MarketMinute - https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/marketminute-2025-9-16-solana-etf-approval-why-delays-dont-dampen-market-enthusiasm

[2] BlockNews - https://blocknews.com/solana-etf-approval-could-land-next-week-heres-why-investors-are-watching-closely-closely/

[3] MEXC - https://www.mexc.com/news/solana-staking-etf-moves-closer-to-sec-approval-after-key-filing/124337

[9] Yahoo Finance - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/heres-expect-solana-daily-transactions-033136177.html