Solana News Today: Market Nears 99% Solana ETF Approval Odds as SEC Extends Timeline

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has postponed its decision on multiple Solana (SOL)-linked exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications, with deadlines now extending into late 2025. Grayscale's proposed Solana ETF, previously expected to be resolved by mid-year, now faces a final decision on October 10, 2025, while Franklin Templeton's application is set for November 14, 2025. The delays reflect the SEC's cautious approach to regulating cryptocurrency-based financial products, with the agency citing the need for additional time to evaluate risks and market impacts. These extended timelines have sparked speculation about the SEC's strategic alignment of approval dates with broader market developments, including other altcoin ETF applications for assets like Polkadot, XRP, and Dogecoin.

Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic despite the delays. Polymarket traders currently price a 99% probability of a Solana ETF approval by October 2025, up from 70%-90% earlier in the year. This surge in confidence is mirrored by a 25% increase in prediction market trading volume, which reached $307,016 by December 31, 2025. Analysts attribute this optimism to the precedent set by Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF approvals in 2024, which injected $108 billion and $12 billion into their respective markets. However, the path for Solana ETFs is not without challenges. The SEC's recent approval of a generic listing standard for digital asset ETFs has streamlined the process for issuers, yet regulators have requested some applications to withdraw under the new framework, signaling a potential delay in final approvals.

JPMorgan, a major institutional player, has tempered expectations for Solana ETF inflows despite the likelihood of regulatory approval. In a recent report, the bank projected first-year inflows of approximately $1.5 billion for Solana ETFs, significantly lower than the $9.6 billion expected for Ethereum ETFs. The firm cited factors such as declining on-chain activity, competition from diversified crypto index products like the S&P Digital Markets 50, and investor fatigue from recent product launches as key headwinds. This cautious outlook was reflected in the market, with Solana's price dropping 5% following the report's release. Technical indicators also show mixed signals: while the token has held above critical support levels, the MACD indicator suggests a potential bearish reversal, with a decline below $180 posing a risk for further corrections.

The broader crypto ecosystem is adapting to the evolving regulatory landscape. The launch of the S&P Digital Markets 50 Index, a hybrid benchmark combining 15 cryptocurrencies and 35 crypto-exposed equities, highlights growing institutional interest in diversified digital asset exposure. Solana, with its high transaction throughput and low fees, is emerging as a preferred blockchain for tokenized equities and real-world asset (RWA) projects. Meanwhile, BNB Chain has recently surpassed Solana in decentralized exchange (DEX) volume, underscoring the competitive dynamics among blockchain networks. These developments suggest that while Solana remains a key player, its dominance in the altcoin space is being challenged by networks with stronger ecosystem growth.

The final decisions on Solana ETFs, expected in October and November 2025, will be pivotal for the token's trajectory. If approved, the ETFs could provide institutional-grade liquidity and legitimacy to Solana, mirroring the impact of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. However, JPMorgan's analysis underscores the need for realistic expectations, as altcoins may struggle to replicate the inflows seen by larger cryptocurrencies. For now, the market remains in a holding pattern, with investors and regulators alike navigating the delicate balance between innovation and oversight.

Source: [1] The Market Periodical (https://themarketperiodical.com/2025/07/30/us-sec-delays-grayscale-solana-etf-decision-until-october-2025/)

[2] MoneyCheck (https://moneycheck.com/sec-delays-franklin-templeton-solana-etf-decision-until-november/)

[5] Blocknews (https://blocknews.com/sec-delays-solana-etf-decision-to-october-2025-amid-xrp-dogecoin-and-polkadot-etf-decision-delays/)

[6] Coindesk (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/09/jpmorgan-sees-modest-inflows-for-solana-etfs-despite-likely-sec-approval)

[7] FXStreet (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/solana-drops-5-as-jpmorgan-predicts-underwhelming-sol-etf-performance-202510091938)

[8] Riotimesonline (https://www.riotimesonline.com/jpmorgan-predicts-14-billion-inflow-for-solana-and-xrp-etfs-in-2025/)

[9] 99Bitcoins (https://99bitcoins.com/news/altcoins/sp-dow-jones-launches-new-sp-digital-markets-50-index-a-game-changer-for-crypto-integration/)

[11] COINOTAG (https://en.coinotag.com/solana-could-lead-tokenized-equities-growth-as-sp-digital-markets-50-pursues-on%E2%80%91chain-token/)

[12] Blocknews (https://blocknews.com/what-happened-in-crypto-today-october-08-bnb-flips-sol-again-and-new-sp-500-all-time-high/)