Solana News Today: HBAR Whales Pile In Despite Flat Smart Money Index; Solana's Institutional Push Hits Snags

HBAR has attracted significant whale accumulation in recent weeks, with large investors adding approximately 127.8 million HBAR tokens-valued at nearly $26.8 million-over two days as of October 6. Wallets holding over 10 million HBAR increased from 129.18 to 130.96, while those with more than 100 million tokens rose from 38.46 to 39.56. This quiet accumulation, confirmed by spot exchange netflows showing sustained outflows, suggests long-term positioning despite a 6% decline in HBAR's price over the past 24 hours. On-chain data reveals a divergence between whale activity and smart money sentiment: the Smart Money Index (SMI), which tracks historically successful traders, has flattened since October 6, signaling reduced confidence in a near-term rebound. Technical indicators also point to caution, with HBAR trading within a rising wedge pattern and facing critical support at $0.21. A break below this level could trigger a 10% decline to $0.19.

Conversely, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) metric has remained resilient, rising steadily since early July and confirming underlying buying pressure. Whale accumulation and elevated OBV suggest that retail selling pressure may be waning, though a trigger for a price breakout remains unclear. Analysts note that HBAR must defend the $0.26 level to maintain bullish momentum, with potential targets at $0.28 and $0.30 if the token breaks above $0.23. Meanwhile, funding rates for HBAR remain elevated but not excessive, indicating aggressive long positions without the immediate risk of a margin squeeze.

Solana (SOL) faces a contrasting scenario, struggling to hold $280 despite institutional interest. Public companies have accumulated nearly 5.9 million SOL tokens, valued at $1.15 billion, with analysts projecting technical support for a move toward $240 and extended targets near $280. Solana's price has repeatedly tested the $250 resistance level, with three prior rejections weakening its significance. The token's daily chart shows an ascending channel, and a breakout above $245 could signal renewed bullish momentum. However, the SOL/BTC pair has formed a double bottom pattern, with a successful breakout over the neckline potentially pushing the ratio toward 0.021. Momentum indicators like the RSI and MACD remain mixed, complicating a clear directional bias.

Network activity for Solana has outpaced competitors, with daily active addresses and transactions surpassing Ethereum and Polygon. This functional adoption, combined with institutional accumulation, supports a long-term bullish case. Yet, the SOL/BTC chart suggests relative weakness, with the token failing to break out from a diagonal resistance trendline. Analysts caution that while Solana's USD price shows potential for a $250 target, its BTC pair indicates a bearish correction unless it surmounts key resistance levels.

HBAR's potential for a short-term rebound hinges on whale activity and technical structure. A 12% bounce is anticipated if the token breaks above $0.230, with the 0.382 Fibonacci extension at $0.27 providing immediate support. This scenario aligns with a golden crossover in the 4-hour EMA and a surge in whale holdings exceeding $186 million. For Solana, the path to $280 remains uncertain, balancing institutional confidence with mixed technical signals. Both tokens illustrate the interplay between large-cap crypto dynamics and evolving market sentiment, with whale behavior and institutional positioning playing pivotal roles in near-term price trajectories.

Source: [1] HBAR Price Faces 10% Risk as Whales Step In (https://beincrypto.com/hbar-price-whales-accumulation-10-percent-risk/)

[2] HBAR Price Eyes Breakout as Whale Wallets Surge (https://chainaffairs.com/hbar-price-eyes-breakout-as-whale-wallets-surge/)

[3] HBAR Price Holds as Whales Accumulate Quietly (https://beincrypto.com/hbar-price-whales-netflow-obv-accumulation/)

[4] HBAR Price Eyes 12% Bounce As Whale Buying Meets Channel (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hbar-price-eyes-12-bounce-103000375.html)

[5] 3 Factors Driving Solana Price Toward $280 in 2025 (https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2025/08/18/3-factors-driving-solana-price-toward-280-in-2025/)

[6] Solana Price Explosion Coming? - Why SOL Could Smash $250 (https://www.ccn.com/analysis/crypto/solana-sol-price-250-bulls/)