Solana/Mexican Peso Market Overview: Bearish Momentum and Key Support Levels

Summary
• Price closed lower at 2577 MXN, down from an open of 2836 MXN amid a bearish 15-minute trend.
• Key support tested at 2600 MXN, with bearish engulfing patterns confirming downward bias.
• Total volume of 110.6 and turnover of 292,670 MXN highlight thin liquidity and muted activity.

SOLMXN opened at 2836 MXN on 2025-11-13 at 12:00 ET and closed at 2577 MXN on 2025-11-14 at 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour high of 2836 MXN and a low of 2565 MXN. The total volume traded in the period was approximately 110.6 SOL and a notional turnover of 292,670 MXN. The price trend has shown consistent bearish momentum, with strong resistance levels at 2680–2700 MXN and support testing at 2600–2619 MXN.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a series of bearish engulfing patterns, particularly from 20:00–20:30 ET, confirming a bearish bias. A notable doji appeared at 23:45 ET near 2659 MXN, suggesting indecision before a sharp decline. Key support levels include 2619 MXN (tested multiple times) and 2600 MXN (tested at 20:30 ET and again at 04:45 ET). Resistance remains firm at 2680–2697 MXN, with the price unable to retest these levels after 00:00 ET.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below the 20-period and 50-period SMAs, reinforcing a short-term bearish tilt. While no daily moving averages are available in this dataset, the overall trend suggests a potential test of the 50-day SMA in the near term, which may act as a critical support level.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram continued to contract, with bearish divergence evident in the 15-minute chart as price hit new lows without confirmation in the histogram. RSI approached oversold territory (below 30) multiple times, most notably at 04:45 ET and 07:00 ET, indicating potential for a short-term bounce. However, these levels were not enough to reverse the bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained low, with the 15-minute Bollinger Bands narrowing in the early morning hours. Price traded well below the 20-period lower band at 2582 MXN before falling further, suggesting continued selling pressure. A contraction in volatility has been followed by a sharp expansion as the price broke below 2600 MXN, confirming a breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 04:45 ET (31.698 SOL) during the sharp decline from 2633 MXN to 2582 MXN, confirming bearish sentiment. However, no follow-through occurred, and volume remained muted in the latter half of the session. The notional turnover reached a 24-hour high of 292,670 MXN during the 04:45 ET candle, but failed to trigger a sustained reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels applied to the key 2836 MXN–2600 MXN swing showed price nearing the 61.8% level at ~2686 MXN. The price failed to find support at this level and continued lower, with 2619 MXN (38.2%) and 2577 MXN (23.6%) likely next targets.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtesting strategy attempted to use RSI (14) data for the symbol “HOLD.P”, but data was unavailable. This highlights the importance of using widely recognized and liquid symbols for robust backtesting. A potential adaptation could involve using RSI (14) on SOLMXN to capture oversold conditions, as observed in this 24-hour period. A strategy might include entering long positions when RSI falls below 30 and exits above 60, with stop-loss at 2600 MXN and take-profit at 2680 MXN. This could align with the observed technical behavior, offering a testable framework.