Solana's Market Volatility Amid Alameda Token Unlocks: Assessing Institutional Demand Versus Unlocking Supply Pressure

Solana (SOL) is navigating a precarious equilibrium in late 2025, as institutional demand for the asset surges while ongoing token unlocks from the Alameda Research/FTX bankruptcy estate inject significant selling pressure. The interplay between these forces has kept the price of SOL in a tight consolidation phase near $155, despite record inflows into U.S. spot Solana ETFs. This tension underscores a critical question for investors: Can institutional appetite absorb the relentless supply of newly unlocked tokens, or will the market capitulate under the weight of systematic selling?

The Supply-Side Challenge: Alameda's Ongoing Unlocks

Alameda Research and FTX-linked wallets continue to unstake and sell Solana tokens under court-ordered bankruptcy proceedings. On November 11, 2025, approximately 193,000 SOL-valued at $30 million-were unlocked and moved to exchanges, part of a structured vesting program that has released over 8 million tokens since November 2023. These unlocks, which are expected to persist until 2028, have historically been liquidated by creditors, with major firms like Galaxy and Pantera absorbing large batches through bankruptcy-managed auctions.

The March 2025 unlock, the largest to date, saw over 11 million SOL ($2 billion at the time) sold, highlighting the scale of potential downward pressure. With an estimated 5 million tokens still locked or staked, the market remains vulnerable to further supply shocks, particularly as smaller monthly unlocks continue to flow onto exchanges.

Institutional Demand: A Counterforce Emerges

Despite the persistent supply pressure, institutional demand for Solana has surged, driven by the launch of U.S. spot ETFs and growing adoption in regulated finance. According to a report by Coinedition, Solana ETFs have recorded over $350 million in net inflows across 11 consecutive days, with Bitwise's BSOL fund alone adding $118 million in a single week. This trend reflects a broader shift as traditional financial institutions, including Rothschild Investment and PNC Financial Services, disclose new positions in Solana-based products.

SoFi Bank's recent decision to enable direct SOL purchases from U.S. checking accounts has further legitimized the asset within the regulated finance sector, signaling institutional confidence in Solana's long-term utility. These developments suggest that institutional buyers are increasingly viewing Solana not just as a speculative asset but as a strategic addition to diversified portfolios.

The Tug-of-War: Price Action and Technical Analysis

The current price of Solana, hovering near $152–$156, reflects the market's struggle to balance these opposing forces. A recent 4.9% decline has broken key support levels, raising concerns that the price could fall toward $100 or lower if institutional demand falters. Analysts emphasize that the $140 support zone is critical: a successful defense could stabilize the price and pave the way for a rebound toward $165–$180, while a breakdown could trigger a deeper correction.

The technical outlook hinges on whether institutional inflows can outpace the monthly unlocks. As of November 2025, over $1 billion in Solana tokens have been unlocked since 2023, yet ETFs and institutional buyers have absorbed much of this supply. However, the sustainability of this demand remains untested, particularly as the unlocks continue to add liquidity to exchanges.

Conclusion: A Defining Phase for Solana

Solana's market volatility in late 2025 encapsulates a broader narrative of systemic selling pressure clashing with institutional buying momentum. While Alameda's unlocks pose a near-term risk to price stability, the surge in ETF inflows and traditional finance adoption offers a counterbalance. Investors must closely monitor the $140 support level and institutional buying patterns to gauge whether Solana can transition from a consolidation phase to a sustained bullish trend.

For now, the asset remains at a crossroads, with its trajectory dependent on the delicate balance between these two forces.