Solana's Emerging Bull Case: Technical and Market Sentiment Convergence in Late 2025

The crypto market's winter has been harsh for Solana (SOL), with its price plummeting 5.24% to $145.43 in early November 2025, breaking key support levels amid institutional selling. Yet, beneath the surface volatility, a compelling bull case is emerging-a convergence of technical resilience, institutional demand, and on-chain fundamentals that suggests Solana is poised for a rebound.

Technical Analysis: A Critical Floor Holds

Solana's price action in late 2025 has been a textbook example of bearish pressure. By mid-November, the asset was trading below all major exponential moving averages (EMAs), with momentum indicators like RSI and MACD signaling mild selling pressure. However, a critical inflection point emerged as SOL stabilized above the $133 support zone-a level that has historically acted as a psychological and technical floor.

According to a report by BraveNewCoin, this stabilization has created a multi-timeframe setup for a potential rebound. If buyers can hold above $133, the next logical targets are $144, followed by resistance at $152–$153 as multi-timeframe setups signal a potential rebound. Further, historical patterns suggest that a sustained move above $160.17 could trigger a retest of the $166.05 pivot point and eventually push toward $270–$295 as price weakness deepens despite strong fundamentals. This technical narrative is reinforced by Solana's 662-day streak without a network outage, a testament to its reliability and long-term appeal as price holds 133 support.

Market Sentiment: ETF Inflows vs. Broader De-Risking

While the broader crypto market has been in a state of fear-elevated BTC dominance and cautious sentiment-Solana ETFs have defied the trend. Data from Bitget indicates that Solana ETFs, particularly Bitwise's BSOL, have absorbed sell-side pressure through 11 consecutive days of inflows, accumulating $621 million by November 25. This contrasts sharply with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which recorded outflows during the same period.

Institutional investors appear to be positioning for the long term. Despite the SEC's recent decision to block a Staked SOL ETF-highlighting regulatory uncertainties-accumulation via ETFs continues as Mitrade notes. As stated by Mitrade, this trend is driven by Solana's high transaction throughput and low fees, which have attracted traditional finance firms seeking scalable blockchain infrastructure. The divergence between ETF inflows and price action suggests that institutional demand is prioritizing Solana's fundamentals over short-term volatility.

On-Chain Fundamentals: TVL Resilience Amid Address Decline

On-chain metrics tell a nuanced story. While daily active addresses have slumped to a 12-month low of 3.3 million-down from a January peak of 9 million-due to waning memecoin enthusiasm as reported by Cryptopolitan, Total Value Locked (TVL) in Solana's DeFi protocols has surged to $9.013 billion. This increase reflects fresh deposits from institutional and crypto-native players, particularly in protocols like Jupiter, Kamino, and Jito as detailed in Mitrade's analysis.

The disconnect between active addresses and TVL underscores a shift in Solana's user base: retail-driven activity (e.g., memecoins) is declining, but institutional-grade DeFi and staking demand are rising. As Coinpedia notes, this trend aligns with Solana's TVL staying above $5 billion despite broader market pressures, signaling continued network utility.

The Bull Case: Convergence of Factors

The emerging bull case for Solana hinges on the convergence of three factors:
1. Technical Resilience: Holding above $133 and retesting key resistance levels could trigger a multi-week rebound.
2. Institutional Demand: ETF inflows and long-term custody accumulation suggest confidence in Solana's infrastructure.
3. Fundamental Strength: TVL growth and network reliability position Solana as a scalable solution for DeFi and institutional use cases.

While risks remain-such as regulatory headwinds and broader market volatility-the interplay of these factors creates a compelling narrative for a $150–$165 price target as price holds 133 support. For investors, this represents an opportunity to capitalize on a market dislocation while Solana's ecosystem continues to evolve.