Soporte crítico de $123 y camino a $190 de Solana: análisis técnico y de liquidez

The Solana (SOL) price action has long been a focal point for crypto investors, with its recent consolidation near the $123 support level and potential retests of the $190 resistance zone offering a compelling case study in technical resilience and liquidity dynamics. As the cryptocurrency navigates a bearish correction, the interplay between on-chain fundamentals, institutional adoption, and market sentiment will determine whether it can stabilize or break into a deeper downtrend.

The $123 Support: A Knife-Edge for Solana

The $123 level has historically acted as a critical psychological and structural support for Solana, with repeated rebounds generating significant upside in prior cycles. However, recent price action suggests weakening momentum. A double bottom forming near $121–$122 indicates short-term demand, but the inability to reclaim key resistance levels like $129 and $130 underscores persistent bearish pressure. Technically, Solana is trading below all major moving averages (20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs), reinforcing a downtrend. A breakdown below $123 could expose the price to $116.79 and $111.63, while a sustained close above this level might signal a local bottom.

On-chain data adds nuance. Active addresses on Solana have fallen to a 12-month low, correlating with reduced memecoin activity. Yet, DEX volume remains robust, driven by institutional integrations like Visa's USDC settlement and Galaxy's on-chain credit products. This duality-weak retail engagement but strong infrastructure-highlights Solana's unique position as a settlement layer in regulated finance.

The Path to $190: Liquidity Retesting and Structural Hurdles

If Solana stabilizes near $123, the next key target is the $190 resistance level, a zone with significant liquidity between $175 and $190. Analysts note that retesting this range could trigger a relief rally, but the path is fraught with challenges. The 20-day EMA at $133 and the 50-day EMA at $146 act as higher-timeframe reversal markers. Until Solana reclaims these levels, the bearish bias persists.

Liquidity dynamics further complicate the outlook. Derivatives data reveals ongoing long liquidations and flat volume during retracements, signaling a lack of conviction among buyers. Meanwhile, spot outflows and institutional inaction-such as DeFi Development Corp's November pause in Solana purchases-suggest that larger players are not yet accumulating. This contrasts with Solana's network resilience, including its survival of a 6 Tbps DDoS attack and early adoption of post-quantum security, which provide long-term structural support.

Broader Market Context: Bitcoin Dominance and Institutional Shifts

Solana's trajectory is inextricably linked to broader market conditions. Bitcoin ETFs have siphoned capital from altcoins, exacerbating selling pressure. Conversely, Ethereum ETF outflows have created opportunities for high-beta assets like Solana, though institutional adoption remains uneven. The launch of the Valour Solana ETP on Brazil's B3 exchange, for instance, expands access but does not yet offset broader outflows.

Conclusion: A Delicate Balance of Risks and Opportunities

Solana's near-term fate hinges on the $123 support level. A clean retest and close above this zone could catalyze a rally toward $190, but structural weaknesses-such as declining active addresses and weak accumulation-pose risks. Long-term fundamentals, including Firedancer's network upgrades and institutional integrations, remain bullish catalysts. However, until Solana reclaims key EMAs and demonstrates sustained buying pressure, the bearish narrative holds sway. Investors must weigh these dynamics carefully, recognizing that Solana's path to $190 is as much about liquidity retesting as it is about technical resilience.