Solana's $140 Support: A Critical Inflection Point for Long-Term Bulls

The Solana (SOL) ecosystem has entered a pivotal phase as the cryptocurrency hovers near the $140 support level, a threshold that could redefine its trajectory in the coming months. With technical indicators flashing mixed signals and on-chain data revealing both resilience and fragility, the market is at a crossroads. For long-term bulls, the $140 level represents not just a price target but a psychological and structural inflection point that could either validate Solana's dominance in the high-performance blockchain space or expose vulnerabilities in its growth narrative.

Technical Analysis: Oversold Conditions and Bearish Momentum

As of November 13, 2025, Solana is trading at $157.90, having fallen 3.9% in a single day despite institutional inflows into Solana ETFs reaching $323 million over eight consecutive days. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 28.93, signaling extreme oversold conditions, though it has risen to 39 in later reports, hinting at early recovery signs. However, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages remain at $202.88 and $179.78, respectively, with the price still trading below these critical levels. This divergence suggests ongoing seller dominance and bearish pressure, as the asset remains trapped in a downtrend characterized by lower highs and lower lows.

The $140 support level has emerged as a focal point for technical analysts. A breakdown from a symmetrical triangle pattern on the 1-day chart, coupled with a declining On-Balance Volume (OBV) and a Money Flow Index (MFI) below 50, reinforces the likelihood of a near-term dip to this level. The $145–$155 demand zone, which has been retested since November 4, 2025, is now under threat, with the 1-month look-back heatmap identifying $140 as a "magnetic zone" likely to pull prices lower before a potential rebound as key demand zones face test.

On-Chain Analysis: ETF Inflows and Fading Network Activity

While technical indicators paint a bearish picture, on-chain data reveals a more nuanced story. Solana ETFs have attracted $7.98 million in inflows on November 11, marking the eleventh consecutive day of gains, a stark contrast to Ethereum's $107 million in outflows as capital rotation underscores growing institutional confidence. This capital rotation underscores growing institutional confidence in Solana's high-speed blockchain and its expanding use cases in decentralized finance (DeFi) and stablecoin ecosystems as Solana's ecosystem expands.

However, network activity has cooled. Active addresses on Solana have plummeted to 3.3 million, a 12-month low, as the memecoin frenzy of early 2025 wanes. While niche platforms like pump.fun continue to generate revenue, the broader network's user base appears to be consolidating. This decline raises questions about whether Solana's fundamentals can sustain a rebound from $140 without renewed user-driven demand.

The absence of Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio data complicates on-chain analysis. While Solana's year-to-date transaction volume reached 23 billion, the lack of market cap data prevents a full assessment of its valuation relative to usage. This gap leaves analysts relying heavily on ETF flows and short-term price action to gauge the asset's health.

The $140 Support: A Test of Resilience

For Solana to reclaim its status as a top-tier blockchain, the $140 level must hold. A successful defense would require a coordinated effort from both technical and on-chain factors. On the technical side, a breakout above the 50-day EMA ($202.88) could trigger a rally toward $230, as bulls capitalize on oversold conditions. On the on-chain front, sustained ETF inflows and a stabilization in active addresses would signal renewed confidence in Solana's ecosystem.

However, the outcome is inextricably linked to Bitcoin's performance. With Bitcoin trading near $102,000, any weakness in the broader market could drag Solana below $140, exposing it to further selling pressure. Conversely, a Bitcoin rebound above $98,000–$100,000 could create a tailwind for Solana, enabling a bounce from the $140 level.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Inflection Point

Solana's $140 support level is more than a technical benchmark-it is a litmus test for the asset's long-term viability. While bearish momentum and fading network activity pose risks, the combination of institutional inflows and early signs of recovery in the RSI suggests that the worst may not be over. For long-term bulls, the coming weeks will be critical: a successful defense of $140 could reignite optimism, while a breakdown would force a reevaluation of Solana's role in the crypto landscape.

As the market awaits a resolution, one thing is clear: the $140 level will not be a passive floor but an active battleground for Solana's future.