Is Solana's $130–$145 Range the Catalyst for a $200+ Breakout?

Solana (SOL) has long been a bellwether for crypto's innovation cycle, but its recent price action has painted a picture of both struggle and opportunity. As the asset trades near multi-month lows in 2025, the $130–$145 range has emerged as a critical battleground. Technical and on-chain data suggest this zone could either cement a bearish trend or ignite a parabolic rebound toward $200+. Let's dissect the evidence.

Technical Foundations: Support, Divergence, and Liquidity Clusters

The $130–$145 range is not arbitrary. It sits at the intersection of key technical levels and liquidity dynamics. According to a report by , Solana's price has formed a textbook double-bottom pattern, with the $130 level acting as a psychological floor and $145 marking a liquidity cluster. A clean breakout above $143–$145-confirmed by price action now trading above the EMA cluster-signals strong buyer control, a classic precursor to trend reversals.

Meanwhile, higher timeframe indicators are flashing early bullish divergences. The RSI has improved from 28 to 50 since November 11, reflecting a V-shaped recovery from $130. This aligns with historical rebounds from similar oversold levels, which have historically led to multi-month rallies. The TD Sequential buy signal on the daily chart further reinforces this narrative, suggesting exhaustion in the downtrend and a potential reversal zone around $150–$152.

On-Chain Signals: Stress, Active Addresses, and Cost Basis

On-chain metrics tell a nuanced story. While 80% of Solana's circulating supply remains below its cost basis-a sign of lingering stress-this also implies a high concentration of unrealized losses, which could fuel a short-covering rally. Crucially, Nansen's data reveals 17.2 million active addresses, underscoring continued network participation despite price weakness. This suggests the recent selloff is more technical than structural, with retail and institutional buyers still engaged.

Liquidity heatmaps add another layer of confirmation. Clusters around $145–$150 indicate a potential "sweep" scenario, where aggressive buyers could push price above key resistance. A successful defense of $150 would likely trigger a cascade of stop-loss orders and open the door to $165–$170, with $200+ becoming a plausible long-term target if momentum persists.

Catalysts: ETF Inflows and Institutional Reentry

The macro backdrop is equally compelling. ETF inflows into crypto assets hit $390 million as of November 2025, per LiveBitcoinNews. While Bitcoin and Ethereum dominate these flows, Solana's unique value proposition-as a high-performance blockchain with real-world adoption-positions it to capture a share of this institutional capital. A breakout above $145 could trigger a re-rating of Solana's fundamentals, particularly as developers and enterprises continue building on its ecosystem.

Risks and Resistance

No analysis is complete without acknowledging risks. A breakdown below $130 would invalidate the double-bottom pattern and expose the $120 support level. However, given the on-chain stress and active address metrics, a rebound from such a level seems likely. The $145–$150 zone remains the immediate focus: a sustained close above $150 would be a green flag for a $200+ move.

Conclusion: A High-Probability Setup

Solana's $130–$145 range is more than a technical artifact-it's a confluence of on-chain resilience, liquidity dynamics, and macro-driven catalysts. The combination of a TD Sequential buy signal, improving RSI, and active address strength creates a high-probability setup for a reversal. While volatility remains a given, the path of least resistance is clearly upward. For investors, this range represents a pivotal inflection point: a failed breakout would signal further weakness, but a clean break above $145 could mark the beginning of a new bull cycle for Solana.