SOL Rallies 5% on ETF News, Then Loses All Gains

SOL, a prominent altcoin, experienced a brief rally of 5% on Monday, reaching $160 following the announcement of its first exchange-traded fund (ETF) set to begin trading on Wednesday. However, this momentum was short-lived as the gains were completely erased within 24 hours, revealing persistent technical weaknesses across various time frames.

On the lower time frame, SOL has struggled to maintain its position above the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) for over a month. Despite several bullish break-of-structure formations, including a recent surge above $148, the altcoin has failed to convert these into sustainable uptrends. The $148 level is currently under pressure, and a drop below $137 would confirm a lower low, diminishing the chances of near-term bullish continuation. For SOL to regain upside momentum, a successful retest of the $145–$137 demand zone, followed by a recovery above $160, is crucial.

On the higher time frame, the broader trend remains bearish. In May, SOL failed to breach the key resistance at $180 and has since trended downward within a descending channel. While such patterns can lead to bullish breakouts, SOL has remained highly sensitive to Bitcoin’s weakness throughout the past month. Despite Bitcoin hovering near all-time highs, SOL has declined nearly 50% since Jan. 19, reflecting relative underperformance.

If the bearish trend persists, a retest of the daily order block between $120 and $95 remains realistic, offering a more attractive long-term entry point. However, a strong daily close above $160 in the coming weeks could flip sentiment and accelerate a bullish reversal, carrying short-term momentum into the higher time frame.

SOL is currently trading around $148, with its UTXO realized price distribution (URPD) offering critical insights into support and resistance zones. The current price sits within a supply cluster of 14.3% at $144.5 to $147.7, suggesting strong holder concentration. This level is pivotal, as a range that could sustain the current price if buying pressure holds. Data indicates that maintaining above $144 is crucial. A breach below this threshold signals potential weakness, increasing the likelihood of a retest of lower support zones.

The $100-$97 range holds 3% of the supply, while $124 supports 1.58%, offering limited buffers. If the price fails to hold above $144, the market risks a deeper decline toward these levels, where thinner supply could amplify volatility. Resistance emerges at $157, where 5.55% of supply is concentrated, posing a challenge for upward momentum. For now, the dense $144.5-$147.7 cluster underscores a solid base, where investors should defend the SOL price.