Is SoftBank's Pre-FOMC Dip in Twenty One Capital the Most Strategic Crypto-Linked Stock Buy in December?

The December 2025 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision looms as a pivotal moment for risk assets, particularly in the Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) sector. With the Fed widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, market pessimism has created a compelling opportunity to capitalize on undervalued crypto-linked equities. Among these, Twenty One Capital (XXI) stands out as a uniquely positioned player, offering direct exposure to Bitcoin while leveraging a corporate structure designed to amplify returns in a post-easing environment.

Market Pessimism and the DAT Sector's Weakness

The DAT sector has been battered by macroeconomic headwinds, with stocks trading at or below 1x modified net asset value (mNAV) amid declining crypto prices and rising liquidity risks according to analysis. This pessimism is exacerbated by fears of a yen carry trade unwind and aggressive short positioning, which have amplified volatility. However, historical data suggests that Fed easing cycles historically benefit risk assets, particularly those with high duration exposure. For instance, during the 2024 easing cycle, the S&P 500 delivered 12.0% returns in the 319 days following the first rate cut. If the December FOMC follows this pattern, the DAT sector-and XXI in particular-could see a sharp rebound.

Twenty One Capital's Strategic Differentiation

Twenty One Capital's value proposition lies in its Bitcoin-native structure. The company holds over 43,500 BTC, valued at $3.97 billion as of November 2025, making it the third-largest publicly listed Bitcoin holder. Unlike traditional crypto firms, XXI is designed to maximize Bitcoin ownership per share (BPS) while exploring Bitcoin-native financial tools. This structure aligns shareholder interests directly with Bitcoin's price action, creating a unique hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty.

The company's recent listing on the NYSE under ticker XXI has been rocky, with shares plunging 26.4% in premarket trading. This selloff reflects broader market skepticism about crypto-linked equities, despite XXI's robust balance sheet. As of December 9, 2025, XXI's market capitalization stood at approximately $4 billion according to Bloomberg, while its Bitcoin holdings alone are valued at $3.97 billion as reported by Reuters. This suggests a potential discount to net asset value (NAV), even if precise NAV per share figures remain undisclosed. Analysts estimate an NAV per share of around $15, implying a significant undervaluation relative to the current stock price of $11.42 as reported by Bloomberg.

Fed Easing and the Case for Buying the Dip

The Fed's anticipated rate cut creates a favorable backdrop for Bitcoin and related equities. Historically, easing cycles have driven capital into high-duration assets, with the S&P 500 averaging 30.3% returns during non-recessionary rate-cut periods according to research. For XXI, this dynamic is amplified by its direct Bitcoin exposure. A weaker U.S. dollar and improved liquidity conditions could catalyze a rebound in Bitcoin prices, further boosting XXI's BPS and NAV.

Moreover, the Fed's forward guidance will be critical. If policymakers signal a broader easing cycle-such as the proposed $45 billion monthly Treasury bill purchases starting in January 2026-this could unlock long-term support for the DAT sector. XXI's institutional backing, including Tether, Cantor Fitzgerald, and Jack Mallers according to CNBC, adds credibility to its ability to navigate regulatory and market challenges.

Risks and Mitigants

While the case for XXI is compelling, risks remain. The DAT sector's volatility is tied to Bitcoin's price swings, and a further drop in crypto prices could exacerbate the discount to NAV. Additionally, the Fed's decision to pause or cut less than expected could deepen market pessimism. However, XXI's strategic differentiation-its focus on Bitcoin accumulation and ecosystem growth-positions it to outperform in a post-easing environment.

Conclusion

The pre-FOMC dip in Twenty One Capital represents a strategic entry point for investors seeking exposure to Bitcoin's upside while leveraging the Fed's easing cycle. With a discounted valuation, institutional backing, and a corporate structure aligned with Bitcoin's price action, XXI offers a unique combination of risk mitigation and growth potential. As the December 2025 FOMC approaches, capitalizing on this dip could prove to be one of the most astute moves in the DAT sector.