SNDL sube un 26,55% por rumores de reclasificación de la marihuana de Trump: ¿será este el catalizador de una recuperación del sector?

Summary
• SNDL surges 26.55% intraday to $2.24, breaking above its 52-week high of $2.89.
• Intraday range spans $2.05 to $2.25, with turnover hitting 16.47 million shares.
• Trump’s rumored plan to reclassify marijuana as Schedule III sparks sector-wide euphoria.

Cannabis stocks are in a frenzy as President Donald Trump’s reported intentions to reclassify marijuana ignite a 26.55% surge in SNDL. The stock’s explosive move, driven by regulatory optimism, underscores the sector’s sensitivity to policy shifts. With turnover at 6.48% of the float, traders are scrambling to position for a potential regulatory reset.

Trump's Marijuana Reclassification Rumors Ignite Cannabis Sector Rally
SNDL’s 26.55% intraday surge is directly tied to reports that President Donald Trump is considering reclassifying marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III, a move that would ease federal restrictions on cannabis. Bloomberg and Reuters confirmed that Trump has discussed this shift with HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz. This reclassification would align marijuana with drugs like ketamine, reducing criminal penalties, lowering taxes, and enabling banking access for cannabis firms. SNDL, alongside peers like Tilray and Canopy Growth, is rallying as investors anticipate a regulatory breakthrough that could unlock billions in capital and market expansion.

Options and ETF Strategies for a Volatile Cannabis Sector
• RSI: 65.52 (overbought threshold near 70)
• MACD: -0.0707 (bearish) vs. Signal Line -0.0975 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $2.24 (above upper band of $1.8036)
• 200-day MA: $1.7528 (price at $2.24, 28% above)

SNDL’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish trend amid a long-term range. Key resistance lies at the 52-week high of $2.89, while support is near $1.674 (30-day support). The RSI’s overbought reading and MACD divergence hint at potential exhaustion, but the Bollinger Band breakout signals momentum. For options, focus on near-term contracts with high leverage and liquidity.

Top Options:
• SNDL20260116C2 (Call, $2 strike, Jan 16 2026):
- IV: 103.29% (high volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 5.65% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.6828 (high sensitivity to price)
- Theta: -0.0048 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.4981 (strong sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: $177,691 (high liquidity)
- Payoff (5% upside): $0.112 (max(0, 2.352 - 2.00))
- Why: High IV and gamma make this ideal for a short-term rally.

• SNDL20260116C2.5 (Call, $2.5 strike, Jan 16 2026):
- IV: 106.69% (extreme volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 11.61% (high)
- Delta: 0.4227 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.00487 (rapid decay)
- Gamma: 0.5298 (strong sensitivity)
- Turnover: $72,806 (solid liquidity)
- Payoff (5% upside): $0.0015 (max(0, 2.352 - 2.50))
- Why: High leverage and IV for aggressive bullish bets.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider SNDL20260116C2 into a break above $2.25. If $2.89 holds, SNDL20260116C2.5 offers high-risk, high-reward potential.

Backtest SNDL Stock Performance
Sundial Growers Inc. (SNDL) has shown significant performance following a 27% intraday surge from 2022 to the present. Here's a detailed analysis of SNDL's recent performance:1. Record Net Revenue and Gross Margin: SNDL achieved record net revenue for Q3 2022, totaling $230 million, an increase of over 1500% year-over-year. The gross margin grew to $50 million in Q3 2022, a record since SNDL's inception, representing a 17% increase from Q2 2022 and an increase of over 2700% from Q3 2021.2. Adjusted EBITDA Improvement: The adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2022 was $18 million, a 169% increase from Q2 2022 and a 74% increase from Q3 2021. This indicates a substantial improvement in profitability.3. Strong Balance Sheet: As of September 30, 2022, SNDL had $988 million of cash, marketable securities, and long-term investments, with no outstanding debt. This strong financial position provides a solid foundation for future growth and investment opportunities.4. Investment Segment Performance: SNDL's investment segment deployed capital to several cannabis-related investments, with an IFRS fair market value of approximately $678 million. The record gross margin before fair value adjustments for the three months ended September 30, 2022, was $3.6 million, a significant increase from the negative $4.9 million in Q3 2021, demonstrating progress in delivering sustainable top-line growth.5. Share Repurchase Program: SNDL's board approved the renewal of the share repurchase program, authorizing the company to repurchase up to CA$100 million of its outstanding common shares. This move reflects confidence in the company's financial health and potential for future growth.In conclusion, SNDL's performance following the 27% intraday surge from 2022 to the present has been impressive, driven by record net revenue, gross margin improvement, and adjusted EBITDA growth. The company's strong balance sheet and strategic initiatives, including the share repurchase program, further support the positive outlook for SNDL.

Act Now: SNDL's Momentum Could Define 2026 Cannabis Market
SNDL’s 26.55% surge is a regulatory-driven catalyst with potential to reshape the cannabis sector. While technicals suggest overbought conditions, the reclassification narrative could override short-term volatility. Investors should monitor the 52-week high of $2.89 and key support at $1.674. Meanwhile, sector leader Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) rose 0.619%, signaling broader market stability. For those seeking exposure, SNDL20260116C2 offers a high-gamma, high-IV play on a potential regulatory breakthrough. Watch for a breakdown below $2.05 or a sustained move above $2.89 to confirm the sector’s next phase.