Why Is Smurfit Westrock (SW) Down 22.8% Since Last Earnings Report?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Smurfit Westrock (SW). Shares have lost about 22.8% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Smurfit Westrock due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for Smurfit Westrock PLC before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

Smurfit Westrock Falls Short of Earnings & Sales Estimates in Q4

Smurfit Westrock reported earnings of 34 cents per share in fourth-quarter 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 46 cents. The company had registered earnings of 47 cents in the year-ago quarter.

Smurfit Westrock was formed by the merger of two major paper and packaging industry players, Smurfit Kappa and WestRock, on July 5, 2024. Results for Smurfit Westrock are being reported from the third quarter of 2024 as a unified company.

Smurfit Westrock’s Q4 Sales Inch Up Y/Y

The company’s net sales rose 0.5% year over year to $7.58 billion. The top line lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7.67 billion.

The reported cost of sales increased 1.7% to $6.2 billion from the year-ago period. The gross profit fell 4.2% year over year to $1.38 billion. The adjusted EBITDA was $1.17 billion, up 0.5% from the year-ago quarter. The adjusted EBITDA margin was 15.5%, flat year over year.

SW’s Q4 Segmental Performances

The company operates under three reportable segments.

Europe, MEA & APAC: This segment includes operations in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and the Asia Pacific. Sales for the Europe, MEA and APAC segment were $2.69 billion, up 7.1% year over year. The segment’s adjusted EBITDA was up 18.1% year over year at $438 million.

North America: This segment includes operations in the United States, Canada and Mexico. Sales for the North America segment were $4.35 billion, a decrease from the year-ago period’s $4.52 billion. The segment’s adjusted EBITDA fell to $651 million from the year-ago quarter’s $710 million.

LATAM: This segment includes operations in Central America and the Caribbean, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru. Sales for this segment were $537 million, up 6.3% year over year. The segment’s adjusted EBITDA increased 8.3% year over year at $131 million.

Smurfit Westrock’s Cash Position & Balance Sheet Updates

SW had cash and cash equivalents (including restricted cash) of $892 million at the end of 2025 compared with $855 million as of the end of 2024.

Net cash provided by operating activities was $1.19 billion compared with $0.78 billion in the year-ago quarter. At the end of Dec. 31, 2025, the adjusted free cash flow was $679 million compared with $257 million in the year-ago period.
The company had previously announced a quarterly dividend of 45.23 cents per share.

SW’s 2025 Performance

SW has reported adjusted earnings of $2.05 per share in 2025, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of earnings of $2.20. Smurfit Westrock had posted earnings of $2.34 in the year-ago quarter.

The company’s net sales improved 47.7% year over year to $31.12 billion. The top line lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $31.26 billion.

The company reported 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $4.93 billion, which came within its guidance.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates over the past two months.

VGM Scores

Currently, Smurfit Westrock has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Smurfit Westrock has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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