Smurfit WestRock Jumps 3.03% As Technicals Signal Bullish Reversal

Smurfit WestRock (SW) rose 3.03% in the most recent session to close at $43.25, recovering from recent declines. The technical analysis below evaluates key indicators using the provided historical data.
Candlestick Theory
The June 16 session formed a bullish candle closing near its high ($42.91 low, $43.81 high), suggesting buyer conviction after testing the $42.00 support zone established on June 13. Resistance is observed near $44.00, where multiple reversals occurred in early June. The recovery from $41.75 (June 13 low) validates this as a critical support level.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day and 100-day moving averages (approximately $44.40 and $45.20) are above the current price, signaling near-term bearish pressure. Conversely, the 200-day moving average (approximately $43.00) provides underlying support. The price remains below the shorter-term MAs but holds above the long-term trend indicator, reflecting conflicted intermediate sentiment.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows nascent bullish momentum as it attempts to cross above its signal line after a deep oversold trough in mid-June. KDJ registers an oversold rebound with the %K line crossing above %D at 25, signaling a short-term bullish reversal signal. However, both oscillators remain below neutral midpoints, requiring confirmation.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Band width expanded sharply during the June decline, reflecting rising volatility. The recent bounce from the lower band ($42.00 zone) indicates a volatility contraction phase may be developing. The close near the middle band ($43.50) suggests near-term equilibrium, with next resistance at the upper band ($45.00).
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged 2.6% during the 3.03% rally on June 16, validating the bullish reversal with accumulation signals. This contrasts with above-average volume on the June 13 decline, confirming capitulation. Sustained volume on upside movements supports trend continuation potential.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (approximately 45) exited oversold territory (<30 on June 13) but remains below neutrality. Current readings suggest room for additional upside before overbought concerns emerge. Divergence occurred as price made lower lows in mid-June while RSI formed higher lows, foreshadowing the recent bounce.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels to the swing high ($46.64 on May 16) and low ($41.75 on June 13), the 38.2% retracement aligns at $43.62 – a key resistance tested in the last session. The 50% level ($44.20) converges with the 50-day MA, creating a significant technical barrier. The 23.6% level ($42.90) now acts as support.
Confluence and Divergence
Notable confluence exists between Fibonacci resistance ($43.62), Bollinger middle band ($43.50), and prior swing highs ($43.81), making this zone critical for near-term direction. Bullish divergence appeared between price and RSI/momentum oscillators in mid-June. However, the Moving Average configuration shows bearish alignment, creating indicator conflict that resolves at the $44.00–44.20 resistance cluster. A sustained break above this zone would shift bias bullish.