La recuperación de las acciones pequeñas y la paradoja de Qualcomm: por qué los inversores deberían volver a equilibrar su cartera ahora

The stock market in 2025 is at a crossroads. After years of dominance by large-cap tech stocks, a quiet but powerful shift is underway: small-cap equities are surging, and the so-called "Qualcomm Paradox" is emerging as a barometer of contrarian sentiment. For investors seeking to reallocate capital in a shifting market cycle, understanding these dynamics is no longer optional-it's imperative.

The Small-Cap Rebound: A Structural Shift or Cyclical Fluke?

According to a report, small-cap stocks are projected to deliver 22% earnings per share (EPS) growth in 2025, outpacing the 15% expected for large-cap counterparts. This divergence is fueled by macroeconomic tailwinds, including the anticipation of rate cuts and a broader risk-on investor sentiment. Small-cap companies, often more agile and sector-diverse, are benefiting from trends like reshoring, AI-driven productivity gains, and the electrification of industries.

Yet, this rebound is not without skepticism. Critics argue that small-caps remain vulnerable to liquidity shocks and regulatory headwinds. However, the data suggests a more nuanced reality: small-cap valuations are still trading at a discount to historical averages, and their exposure to high-growth sectors like AI and renewable energy positions them to outperform in a low-rate environment.

The Qualcomm Paradox: Contrarian Indicator or Overhyped Narrative?

The term "Qualcomm Paradox" has gained traction in 2025 as a metaphor for market indecision. On one hand, Qualcomm has delivered a 13% year-to-date gain in 2025, driven by its strategic pivot into automotive and IoT markets. On the other, its net profit margin has plummeted from 29.27% in 2022 to 12.51% in 2025, raising questions about sustainability. This duality has made Qualcomm a focal point for contrarian investors.

Analysts at Investing.com highlight the stock's polarizing nature: bullish investors cite its 10% year-over-year revenue growth and aggressive roadmap to double automotive and IoT revenue by 2029. Skeptics, however, warn of a "frothy" valuation, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 35-near its historical peak-and concerns about execution lags compared to peers like Intel and AMD. Technical indicators add to the confusion: a recent RSI crossover into bullish territory and a positive MACD signal suggest momentum may be shifting, but the $165 price level remains a critical test.

Qualcomm's recent foray into AI, including the Cloud AI 100 Ultra and partnerships in Saudi Arabia, has further muddied the waters. While these initiatives position the company as a potential leader in on-device AI processing, they also invite scrutiny over long-term profitability and competitive threats.

Why Rebalance Now?

The interplay between small-cap strength and the Qualcomm Paradox underscores a broader market transition. As interest rates trend downward, capital is flowing toward sectors with high-growth potential and earnings visibility-both hallmarks of small-caps and AI-driven tech plays. Qualcomm, despite its valuation risks, embodies this transition: its diversification into automotive and IoT insulates it from smartphone demand volatility, while its AI bets align with macro trends.

For contrarian investors, the key lies in balancing exposure. Small-caps offer growth potential but require careful screening for liquidity and sector concentration. Qualcomm, meanwhile, represents a high-conviction trade-its fundamentals justify optimism, but its volatility demands caution.

Conclusion

The 2025 market cycle is defined by divergences: small-caps rebounding, tech stocks redefining their narratives, and contrarian indicators like Qualcomm challenging conventional wisdom. Investors who rebalance now-leaning into small-cap resilience while hedging against Qualcomm's risks-position themselves to capitalize on the next phase of market evolution. As always, the devil is in the details: monitor technical levels, regulatory shifts, and sector-specific catalysts to stay ahead of the curve.