SKALE/Tether (SKLUSDT) Market Overview

• Price declined 11.4% over 24 hours with oversold RSI and bearish momentum.
• Volatility contracted during nighttime trading, with a low-volume consolidation phase.
• 0.0250–0.0251 resistance cluster repeatedly tested and failed to hold.
• Bollinger Bands signaled a potential breakout after a period of tight compression.
• Key support at 0.0248–0.0249 tested multiple times, with volume confirming bearish continuation.

The SKALE/Tether (SKLUSDT) pair opened at $0.02514 on 2025-10-06 12:00 ET and closed at $0.02481 on 2025-10-07 12:00 ET, hitting a high of $0.02536 and a low of $0.02369 over the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 172,390,500 tokens, with a notional turnover of approximately $4,417,379. The pair exhibited a bearish bias, marked by multiple attempts to reclaim 0.0250–0.0251 support, all of which failed.

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed several bearish formations over the past 24 hours, most notably a key bearish engulfing pattern forming near $0.02513. This occurred around 17:30 ET on October 6, as the pair closed below its open, signaling a shift in short-term sentiment. Additionally, a series of doji candles emerged near key psychological levels (0.0250, 0.0249, and 0.0248), indicating indecision and potential turning points. The 0.0248–0.0249 area was tested multiple times, with bearish momentum prevailing on each occasion. A significant breakdown occurred from the 0.0253–0.0252 resistance zone, where volume surged, confirming the move lower.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages trended downward throughout the 24-hour period, with price consistently trading below both. This suggests short-term bearish momentum is intact. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period moving averages were aligned in a descending bias, reinforcing the bearish bias. Price remained below the 50-day MA, a sign of a potential continuation of the downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The RSI reached oversold territory below 30 by 15:45 ET on October 7, a potential sign of a short-term rebound. However, no immediate reversal followed, suggesting that the bears retained control. The MACD histogram remained negative throughout the session, with the line and signal line forming a bearish crossover early on October 6. This reinforced the momentum bias to the downside and indicated a lack of strength in any potential rallies.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a marked contraction in volatility during the overnight session (ET), followed by a sharp expansion in the early morning. Price action remained within the lower band for much of the session, with a brief retest of the mid-band failing to gain traction. The recent expansion in the band’s width and the price’s position within the lower half suggest a potential continuation of the downward trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained relatively steady during the overnight hours, with a notable increase in turnover during the early morning ET hours. This coincided with the breakdown from 0.0250–0.0251 and the subsequent move toward 0.0248. Notional turnover confirmed the bearish move, particularly around the 20:30–21:30 ET timeframe, when the price dropped from 0.02511 to 0.02491. There were no significant divergences between price and volume, indicating that the bearish momentum was supported by strong trading activity.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the recent high of $0.02536 to the low of $0.02369 revealed key levels of interest. The 0.382 (0.0244) and 0.618 (0.0240) retracement levels acted as temporary barriers during the downtrend. Price paused at 0.02491 near the 0.382 level but failed to hold, suggesting a deeper correction is in play. The 0.0248–0.0249 range aligns with the 0.50 Fib level, making it a critical area to watch for potential support or a bounce.

Looking ahead, the 0.0248–0.0249 level remains a crucial support zone, and its hold could signal a short-term reversal or consolidation. However, a break below this level would likely target the 0.0245–0.0240 range. Traders should remain cautious as the bearish momentum remains strong, and a sharp rebound is possible if the RSI holds above 30 for a prolonged period. The market remains in a high-risk environment, with limited upside protection in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a short-biased approach based on the observed bearish engulfing and doji patterns. A sell entry could be triggered on a close below the 0.0250–0.0251 resistance cluster, with a stop-loss placed just above the 0.02536 high of the previous session. A target of 0.0248–0.0249 would align with the key Fibonacci retracement and Bollinger Band support. The MACD and RSI indicators could be used to confirm the entry and exit signals, with a close below the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart offering a strong bearish confirmation.