Reunión récord de plata y potencial de $100 por onza en 2026: un mercado de ganancias durante varios años impulsado por dinámicas de déficit de oferta y vientos de tecnología industrial

The silver market is experiencing a seismic shift, with prices surging to record highs in 2025 and setting the stage for a potential $100/ounce milestone by 2026. This rally is not a fleeting speculative bubble but a structural response to a perfect storm of industrial demand, constrained supply, and macroeconomic tailwinds. As the world accelerates its transition to renewable energy and advanced technologies, silver-a critical enabler of modern infrastructure-is poised to outperform even the most bullish expectations.

Supply Deficits: A Structural Constraint

The global silver market has been in a persistent deficit for years, with the gap widening in 2023–2025. According to the Silver Institute's World Silver Survey 2023, demand outstripped supply by 237.7 million ounces in 2022, and the deficit is projected to narrow only marginally to 149 million ounces in 2025. This imbalance is driven by a combination of factors:
- Mine production growth is lagging: Despite a projected 3% increase in 2025 to 1.05 billion ounces-the highest since 2014-declining ore grades, permitting delays, and capital allocation challenges are stifling output.
- Recycling is insufficient: While recycling volumes are expected to rise by 5% in 2025, breaching 200 million ounces for the first time since 2012, this still falls far short of meeting the 508.6 million ounces of industrial demand recorded in 2022.
- Inventory depletion: London Metal Exchange (LME) silver inventories have plummeted by 75% since 2019, exacerbating liquidity constraints and amplifying price volatility.

These supply-side bottlenecks are not temporary. Silver is a byproduct of base metal mining, meaning producers cannot easily ramp up output in response to price spikes. This inelasticity ensures that deficits will persist, creating a floor for prices.

Industrial Demand: The Green and Digital Revolution

The surge in industrial demand is the linchpin of silver's bull case. Silver's unique properties-unmatched electrical conductivity, thermal efficiency, and durability-make it irreplaceable in key sectors:
1. Solar Energy: Solar photovoltaic (PV) installations consume approximately 15% of annual silver supply. With global installations projected to reach 191 gigawatts in 2024, each panel requiring 20 grams of silver, this application alone is a massive demand driver.
2. Electric Vehicles (EVs): EVs require 2–3 times more silver than internal combustion vehicles, used in battery management systems, power electronics, and charging infrastructure. Automotive silver demand is forecast to grow at a 3.4% compound annual rate from 2025 to 2031.
3. Artificial Intelligence and Data Centers: AI systems and data centers, which rely on high-performance components, are expected to consume 30% more silver than traditional computing equipment.

These sectors are not just growing-they are accelerating. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that solar PV capacity will expand by 60% by 2030, while EV sales are projected to surpass 40% of global vehicle sales by 2030. Meanwhile, the AI boom, fueled by generative AI and cloud computing, is creating a new class of high-silver-demand applications.

Macroeconomic Tailwinds: A Perfect Storm

Beyond structural supply and demand, macroeconomic factors are amplifying the bullish case:
- ETF Inflows and Institutional Demand: Silver ETFs have seen their largest weekly inflows since July 2025, signaling renewed institutional interest. The gold-silver ratio has also hit a year-to-date low, indicating a shift in portfolio allocations toward silver.
- Dollar Weakness and Rate Cuts: Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 are reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver. A weaker U.S. dollar further boosts demand from emerging markets.
- Geopolitical Uncertainty: U.S.-China trade tensions and the inclusion of silver on the U.S. Geological Survey's critical minerals list are driving onshore accumulation and supply chain tightening.

The $100/Ounce Target: A Realistic Outlook

While some analysts caution that the pace of gains may slow, the consensus among experts is that $100/ounce is within reach by 2026. Philippe Gijsels of BNP Paribas and Paul Williams of Solomon Global highlight silver's dual role as both a store of value and an industrial essential, noting its undervaluation relative to gold. The Silver Institute forecasts a structural deficit of 95 million ounces in 2025, with demand from solar, EVs, and AI continuing to outpace supply.

Moreover, the market is already pricing in a bull case. Silver prices hit an all-time high of $62.88/ounce in 2025, and the average 2026 forecast stands at $55/ounce. A $100/ounce target would require a 78% increase from current levels, but this is not inconceivable given the compounding effects of deficits, industrial growth, and macroeconomic shifts.

Conclusion: A Multi-Year Bull Market

Silver's rally is not a short-term anomaly-it is the beginning of a multi-year bull market driven by structural imbalances and technological progress. As the world electrifies and digitizes, silver's role as a critical enabler of modern infrastructure will only grow. For investors, the combination of inelastic demand, constrained supply, and macroeconomic tailwinds makes silver a compelling long-term play. At $100/ounce, the metal could finally reflect its true value in the 21st-century economy.