Aumento récord del precio de la plata: una oportunidad de inversión estratégica en 2025

Silver has surged past $60 per troy ounce in 2025, marking a historic milestone driven by a confluence of industrial demand, monetary policy shifts, and supply constraints. This article examines the forces propelling silver's rally and argues that its dual role as a high-utility industrial metal and an inflation hedge creates a compelling investment case.

Industrial Demand: The Green Energy Revolution's Silver Linchpin

The green energy transition is a primary catalyst for silver's surge. Solar PV manufacturing alone accounts for 17% of global silver consumption, with demand growing at an annualized rate of 12.6% since 2015. Electric vehicles require up to 10 times more silver than traditional internal combustion engines. As the world accelerates its shift to renewable energy, industrial demand for silver is projected to remain robust, even as global economic growth moderates. The structural deficit in silver supply-nearly 95 million ounces in 2025-underscores the imbalance between demand and production. Silver is predominantly a byproduct of zinc and lead mining, and declining ore grades have made secondary supply increasingly unreliable. Mexico and Peru, which produce 40% of global silver, have faced disruptions from labor disputes and environmental regulations, exacerbating supply tightness.

Monetary Policy: Fed Rate Cuts and the Weakening Dollar

Monetary policy has amplified silver's rally. The Federal Reserve's 2025 rate cuts reduced the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver, while a weaker U.S. dollar made the metal more attractive to international investors. Central banks' continued gold purchases and growing concerns about debt sustainability have also pushed capital toward hard assets. In India, silver-backed ETFs have seen significant inflows, reflecting a global shift toward tangible assets amid inflationary pressures. The gold-to-silver ratio has compressed toward historical averages, suggesting silver remains undervalued relative to gold.

This dynamic has attracted both institutional and retail investors, with physical silver purchases hitting record levels.

Supply Constraints and Lease Rates: A Market in Structural Deficit

The silver market has faced structural deficits for seven consecutive years, totaling nearly 800 million ounces since 2019. Elevated silver lease rates-currently at 5.7% in London-reflect ongoing tightness in physical supply. While lease rates have eased from a record high of 39.2% in October 2025, they remain far above historical averages of 0.3–0.5%, signaling persistent scarcity. Key hubs like the Shanghai Futures Exchange have also seen a sharp decline in available inventory, further tightening liquidity. The London Bullion Market Association is considering more frequent inventory updates to address these imbalances, but the underlying supply-demand mismatch is unlikely to resolve quickly.

ETF Inflows: A Surge in Investor Demand

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have become a critical driver of silver's rally. In 2025, silver ETFs added 187 million ounces, with Q4 inflows alone reached 15.7 million ounces-the highest since July. The week of November 20–26, 2025, saw a record 590 metric tonnes of additions, pushing prices to $59.33 per ounce. These inflows reflect both the metal's safe-haven appeal and its structural supply constraints, particularly in the solar and EV sectors. Analysts project continued strength in silver prices, with technical targets pointing toward $75 as the next major level.

The Path Forward: $75 and Beyond

Analysts project continued strength in silver prices, with technical targets pointing toward $75 as the next major level. While risks such as policy reversals or a slowdown in AI-driven demand exist, the confluence of industrial demand, monetary tailwinds, and supply constraints creates a powerful case for silver. Investors should consider the metal's dual utility-both as a critical input for the green economy and as a hedge against fiat currency erosion-as a strategic allocation in 2025.